Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:40:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
36 0x361a…88c3 sports 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$28 (+10%) realized +$25 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%29W / 18L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$27
14 days+$24
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$12
other 28% +$34
crypto 8% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +8.7% -1.7% 62% 62% +3.4%
≤30d 47 +6.7% -3.5% 62% 62% +0.2%
≤90d 47 +6.7% -3.5% 62% 62% +0.2%
all 47 +6.7% -3.5% 62% 62% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.5% 62% +0.2%
10% -12.7% 53% -9.4%
15% -21.2% 45% -18.2%
20% -28.9% 32% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses29 / 18
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions15
Markets (closed)47 / 62
History coverage8d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 58¢ 74¢ $11 $14 +$3 (+27%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score No 67¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spain leading at halftime? Yes 76¢ 78¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Over 74¢ 74¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 79¢ 79¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+18%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-44%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $3 +$1 +27%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 +$2 +57%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $3 +$1 +23%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 +$2 +38%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $8 +$9 +109%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $5 +$1 +27%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $5 +$2 +40%
Qatar to score first vs. Switzerland? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $2 +$1 +26%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $5 +$5 +105%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $9 +$15 +158%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $4 +$4 +90%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $5 +$2 +40%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $7 +$3 +44%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $5 +$3 +52%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $5 +$3 +52%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $4 +$1 +18%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $4 +$3 +76%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Ceará SC win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $3 +$2 +79%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $4 +$4 +97%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $5 +$3 +65%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 10 $3 +$9 +291%
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $3 +$7 +238%
Will SC Recife win on 2026-06-10? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -99%
Will AA Ponte Preta vs. Cuiabá EC end in a draw? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Venezuela end in a draw? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Vila Nova FC win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $5 +$7 +129%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $10 +$2 +21%
Will América FC vs. AC Goianiense end in a draw? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Niger win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 08 $7 −$7 -99%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $7 +$1 +15%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $7 +$3 +36%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $5 +$5 +97%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $5 −$5 -99%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $7 −$7 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 79¢ $6 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $6 1h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 76¢ $7 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $10 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 11h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 19h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 19h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 19h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 19h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 19h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 19h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 19h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 19h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 58¢ $11 29h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 68¢ $5 29h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 78¢ $3 29h
Qatar to score first vs. Switzerland? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 78¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 71¢ $5 2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 1.5 BUY Under 81¢ $3 2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $3 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $4 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $8 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $5 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $9 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 68¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 68¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 56¢ $7 3d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.00 · official $70.73 (match) · 93 history records