Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:35:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x3618…ce00 crypto 31 markets active 0h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$12,481 (-94%) realized −$12,479 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate37%11W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$426per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 104d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 95% −$12,430
crypto 5% −$160
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-47.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -35.8% -41.9% 41% 33% -39.0%
≤30d 27 -35.8% -41.9% 41% 33% -39.0%
≤90d 30 -42.1% -47.6% 37% 30% -96.5%
all 30 -42.1% -47.6% 37% 30% -96.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.6% 30% -96.5%
10% -52.6% 27% -96.8%
15% -57.2% 17% -97.1%
20% -61.4% 7% -97.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -96% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -96% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -67% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$667 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$12,479
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses11 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage104d
Avg bet$426
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Down 54¢ 50¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 29 $11 +$16 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 29 $37 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 29 $53 −$15 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 29 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$8 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 29 $11 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 29 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 29 $51 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 29 $53 −$16 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 29 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 28 $26 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 28 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$17 +159%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 12 $2,822 −$2,727 -97%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 12 $7,303 −$7,214 -99%
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentar Apr 12 $2,489 −$2,489 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $11 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $16 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $11 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $11 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $27 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $36 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $37 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $11 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $33 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $13 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $15 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $31 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.92 · official $22.92 (match) · 130 history records