Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:01:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

36
0x3615…8fdf
crypto · 969 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$2,557 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,806 · open −$249
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized+$2,806
Unrealized−$249
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses555 / 411
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)966 / 969
History coverage4d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day533.6
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 966 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,425
7 days+$2,806
14 days+$2,806
30 days+$2,806
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $245 $2 −$243 (-99%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $28 +$3 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $61 +$14 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $193 +$190 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $53 +$57 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $36 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $62 +$5 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$4 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $456 +$13 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $12 +$4 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $271 +$22 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $932 +$26 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $41 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $308 +$192 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $53 −$31 -58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +376%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $47 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $410 +$12 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $40 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $36 +$43 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$4 -45%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $28 −$28 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $248 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $144 −$55 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $92 +$75 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $53 +$3 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $53 −$53 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$4 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $368 +$30 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $810 +$190 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $86 +$114 +133%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $123 +$77 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $143 +$16 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $218 +$22 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $60 +$40 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $199 +$14 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $19 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $60 −$54 -90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$2,557
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $3 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $61 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $28 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $253 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $70 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $123 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $18 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $30 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $36 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $62 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $15 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $12 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $454 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $271 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $495 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $437 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $308 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 966 +5.9% -4.2% 57% 30% -7.1%
≤30d 966 +5.9% -4.2% 57% 30% -7.1%
≤90d 966 +5.9% -4.2% 57% 30% -7.1%
all 966 +5.9% -4.2% 57% 30% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover533.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.2% 30% -7.1%
10% ← realistic here -13.3% 26% -15.9%
15% -21.7% 20% -24.1%
20% -29.4% 17% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.48 · official $188.03 · 3500 history records