Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:13:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
36 0x3613…79e1 sports 466 markets active 1h ago coverage 147d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 146d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$67,472 (-37%) realized −$67,872 · open +$400
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%196W / 258L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$395per market
Trades / day21.1pace
Fees−$906est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$2,108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 147d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$11,882
other 18% +$1,503
crypto 0% −$3
economics 0% −$86
politics 0% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -7.1% -16.0% 31% 31% -29.0%
≤30d 71 -9.2% -17.8% 32% 32% -31.9%
≤90d 229 -3.9% -13.1% 39% 38% -18.6%
all 454 -3.6% -12.8% 43% 39% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 39% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 38% -23.1%
15% -28.7% 37% -30.5%
20% -35.7% 33% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$286 vs −$260 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$2,108
Realized−$67,872
Unrealized+$400
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses196 / 258
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$906
Open positions12
Markets (closed)454 / 466
History coverage147d ⚠
Avg bet$395
Trades / day21.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 454 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $593 $628 +$34 (+6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $361 $330 −$32 (-9%)
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Spain 31¢ 100¢ $95 $306 +$211 (+222%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 53¢ 100¢ $134 $253 +$119 (+89%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $200 $237 +$37 (+18%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 76¢ 100¢ $100 $132 +$32 (+32%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 62¢ $106 $123 +$17 (+16%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $51 $60 +$8 (+17%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $31 $19 −$12 (-40%)
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $21 $12 −$9 (-43%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $15 $9 −$6 (-37%)
Will Canada reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 18¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $702 +$83 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $424 +$194 +46%
Spread: Japan (-3.5) Jun 21 $31 +$303 +982%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $154 +$177 +116%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $51 +$68 +134%
Spread: Japan (-4.5) Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $202 +$131 +65%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Jun 21 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 21 $641 −$641 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $263 +$137 +52%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $153 −$101 -66%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $102 −$7 -7%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 20 $131 −$131 -100%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $137 −$137 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $538 +$362 +67%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $746 +$138 +18%
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Jun 18 $78 +$220 +281%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $85 −$57 -68%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $227 +$161 +71%
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $446 −$25 -6%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 18 $276 −$276 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $133 −$133 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $746 −$746 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 18 $174 −$174 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $18 +$82 +442%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $224 +$176 +79%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $400 −$67 -17%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $56 −$10 -17%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $677 +$323 +48%
Will K'Andre Miller win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Taylor Hall win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 15 $104 −$104 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 15 $96 −$96 -100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 15 $83 −$83 -100%
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-15.5) Jun 15 $271 −$271 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 15 $249 −$249 -100%
Will Brett Howden win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $322 −$322 -100%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? Jun 15 $382 −$382 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $2,698 −$1,388 -52%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $564 +$436 +77%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 11 $81 +$58 +71%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $1,168 +$1,619 +138%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $92 1h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $31 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $785 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $702 2h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 76¢ $101 2h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 11h
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $15 11h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 52¢ $130 11h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 31¢ $97 11h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 53¢ $273 11h
Spread: Japan (-4.5) BUY Japan 4¢ $21 14h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $121 14h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) BUY Japan 9¢ $31 14h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 21¢ $51 14h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) SELL Japan 20¢ $93 14h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 42¢ $51 14h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 21¢ $102 14h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $303 14h
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 61¢ $121 14h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 60¢ $202 17h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 17h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 27¢ $72 38h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) SELL Türkiye 9¢ $53 38h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 27¢ $221 38h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 21¢ $21 39h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $263 39h
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) BUY Türkiye 9¢ $37 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,107.97 · official $2,108.21 (match) · 3500 history records