Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:39:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x3612…3302 sports 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$186 (-15%) realized −$186 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate45%9W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$73
7 days−$116
14 days−$127
30 days−$154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$80
other 17% −$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +1.4% -8.2% 42% 42% -20.4%
≤30d 20 -8.9% -17.6% 45% 40% -22.4%
≤90d 20 -8.9% -17.6% 45% 40% -22.4%
all 20 -8.9% -17.6% 45% 40% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 40% -22.4%
10% -25.5% 15% -29.8%
15% -32.7% 10% -36.6%
20% -39.3% 10% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 64% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$22 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$186
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses9 / 11
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage26d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Irina-Camelia Begu Jun 21 $41 +$6 +15%
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez Jun 20 $148 +$19 +13%
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Estevez Jun 19 $35 +$1 +3%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $30 +$28 +91%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $17 +$28 +168%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $30 −$4 -13%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 $0 -9%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $141 −$40 -28%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $203 −$73 -36%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 16 $222 −$66 -30%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $220 −$5 -2%
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 08 $13 −$13 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $10 +$2 +23%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $5 +$1 +21%
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame May 28 $8 +$1 +18%
Little Rock: Yuta Shimizu vs Bernard Tomic May 27 $31 −$8 -26%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier May 26 $53 −$15 -28%
Will CD Comerciantes Unidos vs. CD Garcilaso end in a draw? May 25 $10 $0 +3%
Roland Garros ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Gael Monfils May 25 $20 −$7 -35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Irina-Camelia Begu SELL Diane Parry 58¢ $26 1h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Irina-Camelia Begu SELL Diane Parry 47¢ $6 1h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Irina-Camelia Begu SELL Diane Parry 44¢ $5 1h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Irina-Camelia Begu SELL Diane Parry 43¢ $5 1h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Irina-Camelia Begu SELL Diane Parry 42¢ $5 1h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Diane Parry 36¢ $1 1h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Diane Parry 39¢ $0 1h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Diane Parry 40¢ $20 1h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Diane Parry 49¢ $1 1h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Diane Parry 49¢ $15 1h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Diane Parry 49¢ $1 1h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Diane Parry 49¢ $3 1h
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez SELL Nick Hardt 58¢ $9 12h
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez SELL Nick Hardt 46¢ $10 12h
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez SELL Nick Hardt 39¢ $1 12h
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez SELL Nick Hardt 39¢ $1 12h
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez SELL Nick Hardt 39¢ $2 12h
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez SELL Nick Hardt 39¢ $2 12h
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez SELL Nick Hardt 33¢ $2 12h
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez SELL Nick Hardt 33¢ $2 12h
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez SELL Nick Hardt 33¢ $1 12h
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez BUY Nick Hardt 28¢ $1 12h
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez BUY Nick Hardt 28¢ $2 12h
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez BUY Nick Hardt 28¢ $0 12h
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez BUY Nick Hardt 28¢ $1 12h
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez BUY Nick Hardt 41¢ $16 12h
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez BUY Nick Hardt 41¢ $4 12h
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez SELL Juan Estevez 59¢ $10 12h
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez SELL Juan Estevez 65¢ $5 12h
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez SELL Juan Estevez 55¢ $5 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 216 history records