Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:52:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x3612…ae12 crypto 94 markets active 4d ago coverage 200d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$27 (+6%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate59%55W / 39L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$14
other 4% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +33.6% +20.9% 67% 67% -2.2%
≤30d 5 +11.0% +0.4% 60% 60% -26.5%
≤90d 9 -18.3% -26.1% 44% 44% -35.4%
all 94 -1.6% -10.9% 59% 56% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 56% -7.4%
10% -19.5% 52% -16.3%
15% -27.2% 41% -24.4%
20% -34.4% 33% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

200d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses55 / 39
Open positions0
Markets (closed)94 / 94
History coverage200d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 94 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$4 -69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 03 $3 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 06 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 06 $4 +$1 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -56%
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Mar 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Mar 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Mar 13 $5 +$1 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Mar 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Mar 12 $8 −$5 -70%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Mar 12 $5 +$3 +53%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Mar 11 $8 −$8 -99%
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Mar 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Mar 11 $4 −$4 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Mar 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Mar 11 $5 +$3 +55%
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Mar 11 $5 +$1 +18%
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Mar 11 $7 −$6 -86%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Mar 11 $5 −$3 -59%
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Mar 11 $5 +$3 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Mar 11 $7 +$3 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Mar 11 $7 $0 -3%
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Mar 11 $6 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Mar 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Mar 11 $5 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Mar 11 $5 +$4 +74%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Mar 11 $10 +$9 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Mar 11 $4 +$2 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Mar 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Mar 11 $4 +$3 +73%
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Mar 11 $6 +$2 +26%
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Mar 11 $4 +$1 +34%
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Mar 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Mar 11 $5 +$3 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Mar 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 10 $5 +$7 +132%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Mar 10 $5 +$2 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Mar 10 $5 +$2 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Mar 10 $5 +$3 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Mar 10 $4 +$2 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Mar 10 $5 +$4 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Mar 10 $5 +$4 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Mar 10 $5 +$5 +97%
Solana Up or Down - March 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Mar 10 $5 +$3 +69%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Mar 10 $3 +$2 +80%
Solana Up or Down - March 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Mar 10 $5 +$4 +71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $2 13d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 13d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $4 13d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $3 13d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 41d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 41d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 41d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 41d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $0 41d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 41d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 95d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 95d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 95d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 95d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 95d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $2 95d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $8 95d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 95d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 95d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $8 96d
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 97d
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 97d
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $4 97d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $4 97d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 190 history records