Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:18:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x3611…9e77 crypto 83 markets active 0h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$81 (-6%) realized −$80 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate55%45W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$75
7 days−$125
14 days−$125
30 days−$125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$125
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 -13.1% -21.3% 54% 37% -18.3%
≤30d 81 -13.1% -21.3% 54% 37% -18.3%
≤90d 82 -12.5% -20.9% 55% 38% -18.2%
all 82 -12.5% -20.9% 55% 38% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 38% -18.2%
10% -28.4% 23% -26.0%
15% -35.3% 11% -33.2%
20% -41.7% 5% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$80
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses45 / 37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)82 / 83
History coverage35d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Up 26¢ 19¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $36 −$26 -73%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$4 -18%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$7 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$8 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +30%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$10 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$4 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$3 +11%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$6 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $45 −$21 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $36 +$4 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$7 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $41 −$22 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $41 −$13 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $41 +$14 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $41 −$4 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$17 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $36 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 11 $30 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$3 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 11 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $56 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $46 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 2m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $5 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 24m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $5 26m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 27m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $6 27m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $3 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $16 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 28m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $1 30m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $6 30m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $11 31m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $10 32m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $6 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 33m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $5 36m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 37m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 39m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $3 40m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $39 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $15 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $15 44m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $1 45m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 45m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.65 · official $10.19 · 253 history records