Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:55:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x3611…14fb sports 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$62 (-3%) realized −$62 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate50%15W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days−$133
14 days−$109
30 days−$109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$336
other 24% +$152
crypto 7% +$79
world 3% −$5
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-29.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -29.0% -35.8% 41% 32% -17.0%
≤30d 30 -21.9% -29.4% 50% 33% -14.7%
≤90d 30 -21.9% -29.4% 50% 33% -14.7%
all 30 -21.9% -29.4% 50% 33% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.4% 33% -14.7%
10% -36.1% 30% -22.9%
15% -42.3% 17% -30.3%
20% -48.0% 10% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$32 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses15 / 15
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage68d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? No 34¢ 34¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $327 +$107 +33%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $75 −$52 -69%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $106 +$45 +42%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $56 +$19 +34%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $75 −$29 -39%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 14 $26 −$26 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $118 +$100 +85%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $6 +$6 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $46 −$46 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 14 $89 −$89 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $129 +$2 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $33 +$17 +50%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $132 +$8 +6%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 14 $40 −$3 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $25 −$2 -9%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $25 −$16 -64%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $102 +$30 +29%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $117 −$117 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $112 +$1 +1%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 08 $56 +$3 +5%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $34 $0 +0%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 07 $44 +$14 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 07 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 07 $5 −$1 -26%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 07 $11 +$2 +16%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $29 +$15 +53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 98¢ $246 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $28 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $130 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 49¢ $48 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 50¢ $51 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 50¢ $59 3h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 92¢ $147 4h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 60¢ $75 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $62 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 49¢ $81 4h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $19 4h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $26 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 38¢ $46 5h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $19 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $28 6h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Alex Pereira 49¢ $22 6h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 43¢ $5 6h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 43¢ $21 6h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $10 6h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $20 6h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $25 6h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 49¢ $61 7h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 62¢ $10 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 92¢ $218 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 26¢ $12 7h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 23¢ $12 8h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 50¢ $23 8h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 11¢ $6 9h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $26 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.60 · official $26.60 (match) · 97 history records