Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:53:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x3610…4593 other 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$420 (-27%) realized −$418 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%8W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$623
sports 14% +$176
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +10.6% +0.1% 40% 40% -38.9%
≤30d 20 +10.6% +0.1% 40% 40% -38.9%
≤90d 20 +10.6% +0.1% 40% 40% -38.9%
all 20 +10.6% +0.1% 40% 40% -38.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.1% 40% -38.9%
10% -9.5% 40% -44.8%
15% -18.2% 40% -50.1%
20% -26.3% 40% -55.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +57% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$76 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$150
Realized−$418
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses8 / 12
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)20 / 24
History coverage4d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $97 $96 −$1 (-1%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $39 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Morocco? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 South Africa? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $49 +$27 +56%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $50 +$45 +91%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $99 +$103 +103%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $7 $0 -7%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $15 +$96 +642%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $69 −$47 -68%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $730 −$730 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $99 +$65 +66%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $40 +$36 +91%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $40 +$54 +137%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 16 $40 +$40 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $99 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $40 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 21h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 21h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 22h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $49 22h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $50 22h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 22h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 22h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 18¢ $22 24h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 31h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 32h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 32h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 32h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 32h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $69 32h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $99 32h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 45h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $99 45h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 9¢ $14 45h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $40 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $40 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $40 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $589 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $142 4d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 75¢ $49 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.86 · official $149.86 (match) · 47 history records