Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:21:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x360b…982f sports 250 markets active 1h ago coverage 177d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$73,988 (-24%) realized −$73,848 · open −$140
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%123W / 122L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,210per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$898est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$4,530now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$848
14 days+$3,431
30 days+$1,623
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$67,314
other 3% −$7,166
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +36.4% +23.4% 83% 83% +26.2%
≤30d 33 +21.3% +9.8% 73% 73% -0.2%
≤90d 108 -2.3% -11.6% 56% 56% -17.5%
all 245 -12.4% -20.7% 50% 50% -32.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 50% -32.1%
10% -28.3% 49% -38.6%
15% -35.2% 41% -44.5%
20% -41.6% 35% -50.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$1,305) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -22% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$725 vs −$1,340 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

177d coverage
Net worth$4,530
Realized−$73,848
Unrealized−$140
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses123 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$898
Open positions5
Markets (closed)245 / 250
History coverage177d
Avg bet$1,210
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 245 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 67¢ 66¢ $2,643 $2,603 −$39 (-1%)
Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2 Mayweather 65¢ 60¢ $1,310 $1,200 −$110 (-8%)
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Card) Manuel Torres 50¢ 50¢ $500 $505 +$5 (+1%)
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) Javier Reyes 63¢ 64¢ $205 $208 +$3 (+2%)
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main Card) Matheus Camilo 33¢ 36¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $590 +$410 +70%
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma Jun 21 $505 +$230 +46%
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw Jun 21 $503 +$130 +26%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $304 +$232 +76%
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr Jun 20 $45 +$46 +101%
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Jun 20 $204 −$200 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 15 $135 +$365 +270%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 15 $305 +$320 +105%
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, M Jun 15 $568 +$147 +26%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 15 $455 +$282 +62%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $223 +$208 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $403 +$104 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $523 +$104 +20%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $302 +$103 +34%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $304 +$222 +73%
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jun 13 $471 +$140 +30%
UFC Fight Night: Priscila Cachoeira vs. Chelsea Chandler (Women's Bant Jun 13 $608 +$524 +86%
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli Jun 13 $227 +$64 +28%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 06 $804 −$800 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 06 $203 −$200 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 06 $194 −$190 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 01 $218 −$29 -13%
UFC Fight Night: Aoriqileng vs. Cody Haddon (Bantamweight, Prelims) May 31 $2,736 +$855 +31%
UFC Fight Night: Loma Lookboonmee vs. Jaqueline Amorim (Women's Straww May 31 $493 +$448 +91%
UFC Fight Night: Kai Asakura vs. Cameron Smotherman (Bantamweight, Mai May 31 $237 +$96 +40%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 31 $126 +$29 +23%
UFC Fight Night: Jake Matthews vs. Carlston Harris (Welterweight, Main May 31 $32 +$11 +34%
UFC Fight Night: Rodrigo Vera vs. Zhu Kangjie (Featherweight, Prelims) May 29 $647 −$637 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh May 29 $1,020 −$1,020 -100%
Connecticut Sun vs. PortlandFire May 28 $698 +$304 +44%
Toronto Tempo vs. Chicago Sky May 27 $647 −$640 -99%
Atlanta Dream vs. Minnesota Lynx May 27 $537 −$530 -99%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-12.5) May 27 $599 +$496 +83%
Spread: New York Liberty (-7.5) May 24 $500 −$500 -100%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-2.5) May 24 $423 +$477 +113%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 22 $900 −$900 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Tommy Gantt vs. Artur Minev (Lightweight, Prelims) May 18 $1,260 +$740 +59%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 18 $2,882 +$1,221 +42%
UFC Fight Night: Modestas Bukauskas vs. Christian Edwards (Light Heavy May 18 $418 +$155 +37%
UFC Fight Night: Daniel Barez vs. Luis Gurule (Flyweight, Prelims) May 18 $879 +$610 +69%
UFC Fight Night: Alice Ardelean vs. Polyana Viana (Women's Strawweight May 16 $185 −$185 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 15 $500 +$500 +100%
UFC Fight Night: Khaos Williams vs. Nikolay Veretennikov (Welterweight May 15 $235 −$235 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ketlen Vieira vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti (Women's Bant May 14 $1,401 −$1,395 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main C May 14 $1,760 −$1,760 -100%
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) May 12 $885 +$615 +70%
UFC 328: Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis (Featherweight, Early Prelims) May 12 $1,585 +$915 +58%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 08 $1,007 −$993 -99%
UFC 328: Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon (Lightweight, Prelims) May 08 $1,445 −$1,445 -100%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 08 $650 −$650 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) BUY Javier Reyes 63¢ $207 1h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Manuel Torres 50¢ $22 3h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Manuel Torres 50¢ $100 4h
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main BUY Matheus Camilo 33¢ $12 5h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Manuel Torres 50¢ $10 6h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Manuel Torres 50¢ $1 6h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Manuel Torres 50¢ $1 6h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Manuel Torres 50¢ $3 6h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Manuel Torres 50¢ $160 6h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Manuel Torres 50¢ $47 7h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Manuel Torres 50¢ $5 7h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Manuel Torres 50¢ $1 8h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Manuel Torres 50¢ $15 9h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Manuel Torres 50¢ $6 9h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Manuel Torres 50¢ $101 11h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Manuel Torres 50¢ $15 11h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Manuel Torres 50¢ $12 11h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 56¢ $304 5d
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma BUY Christian Rodriguez 68¢ $505 5d
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Ion Cutelaba 27¢ $204 5d
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw BUY Murtazali Magomedov 79¢ $503 5d
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Max Holloway 67¢ $1,316 7d
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr BUY Luana Santos 49¢ $45 8d
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Manel Kape 59¢ $5 8d
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Manel Kape 59¢ $281 8d
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Manel Kape 59¢ $246 8d
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Manel Kape 59¢ $57 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 83¢ $523 12d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 79¢ $403 12d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 51¢ $223 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,529.62 · official $4,529.62 (match) · 1147 history records