Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:12:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
36 0x360a…44b5 crypto 205 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate67%134W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day17.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$1
14 days−$15
30 days−$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$118
other 2% −$11
sports 1% +$25
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +2.7% -7.0% 67% 48% -9.7%
≤30d 201 -6.3% -15.2% 67% 43% -12.8%
≤90d 201 -6.3% -15.2% 67% 43% -12.8%
all 201 -6.3% -15.2% 67% 43% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 43% -12.8%
10% -23.3% 22% -21.1%
15% -30.7% 10% -28.7%
20% -37.5% 7% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses134 / 67
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)201 / 205
History coverage26d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day17.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 201 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$30 +291%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +26%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$13 +250%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +41%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $26 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 10 $26 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 10 $31 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$9 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 09 $15 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$6 +124%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 08 $26 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 53m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 54m
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 55m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 56m
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 23h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 35h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $7 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 40h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 4d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $30 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.74 · official $21.74 (match) · 487 history records