Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:08:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

36 0x3609…f1b1 other 5 markets active 7d ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$159 (-54%) realized −$159 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip

Net edge-50%after slip

Net WR40%break-even

Win rate40%2W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$59per market

Trades / day2.3pace

Kalshi-fit20%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +40%

net ROI/market (all)-50.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤30d	5	-45.0%	-50.2%	40%	40%	-59.7%
≤90d	5	-45.0%	-50.2%	40%	40%	-59.7%
all	5	-45.0%	-50.2%	40%	40%	-59.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-50.2%	40%	-59.7%
10%	-55.0%	40%	-63.6%
15%	-59.4%	20%	-67.1%
20%	-63.3%	0%	-70.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 68% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -56% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -45% · $-wt -56% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$17 vs −$66 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.18 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$159

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)40%

Wins / losses2 / 3

Open positions0

Markets (closed)5 / 5

History coverage4d

Avg bet$59

Trades / day2.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 5 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$77	−$76	-99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$54	+$24	+44%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 16	$72	−$72	-100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$52	−$51	-97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$41	+$11	+28%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$77	6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$77	7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$54	7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	48¢	$72	10d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	2¢	$2	10d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	57¢	$52	10d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	100¢	$52	10d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	77¢	$41	10d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 9 history records