Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:01:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x3609…3a0b weather 300 markets active 2d ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,863 (-5%) realized −$1,863 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate73%218W / 82L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$99est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$1,654
14 days−$1,044
30 days−$935
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 57% −$726
other 17% +$122
sports 16% +$15
world 6% −$968
politics 4% −$401
finance 1% +$5
crypto 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -35.4% -41.6% 47% 27% -50.1%
≤30d 98 -6.8% -15.7% 77% 21% -15.8%
≤90d 205 -12.0% -20.4% 68% 21% -16.9%
all 300 -4.6% -13.7% 73% 34% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 34% -13.9%
10% -21.9% 27% -22.1%
15% -29.5% 16% -29.6%
20% -36.4% 9% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$61 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,863
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses218 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$99
Open positions0
Markets (closed)300 / 300
History coverage226d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 300 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -99%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 15 $8 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 +$1 +11%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 15 $7 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +9%
Kento Shiogai: 1+ goals Jun 14 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $4 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $90 −$79 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $140 −$76 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $162 +$68 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $147 −$101 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 5? Jun 13 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 8? Jun 13 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 10? Jun 13 $55 −$55 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 6? Jun 13 $61 −$61 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 3? Jun 13 $120 −$120 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? Jun 13 $131 −$131 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 11? Jun 13 $114 −$114 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 8? Jun 13 $210 −$210 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 9? Jun 13 $170 −$170 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 22? Jun 13 $846 −$778 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 +$19 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $423 +$26 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $138 −$92 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $115 +$156 +135%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $93 −$91 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $169 +$142 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $367 +$88 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $243 +$209 +86%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 10? Jun 09 $29 −$28 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $58 +$64 +110%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 6? Jun 06 $186 +$10 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 6? Jun 06 $68 +$93 +136%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 6? Jun 06 $102 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $44 +$50 +115%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 4? Jun 04 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 4? Jun 04 $170 +$52 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 3? Jun 03 $113 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 3? Jun 03 $211 +$169 +80%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 4? Jun 03 $27 −$27 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 3? Jun 03 $65 +$9 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 2? Jun 02 $268 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 2? Jun 02 $202 +$49 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 1? Jun 02 $171 +$49 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 1? Jun 02 $125 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 1? Jun 02 $120 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 31? Jun 01 $108 +$7 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 1? Jun 01 $33 −$32 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $9 40h
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? SELL No 100¢ $9 40h
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? BUY No 96¢ $8 40h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 40h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 95¢ $8 43h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $8 43h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 89¢ $7 45h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China SELL Yakult Brothers 100¢ $7 46h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 94¢ $7 46h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? SELL Yes 73¢ $6 46h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? SELL Yes 73¢ $1 47h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 66¢ $6 2d
Kento Shiogai: 1+ goals BUY No 86¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 26¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 20¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? SELL Yes 91¢ $27 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? SELL Yes 91¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 70¢ $25 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? SELL Yes 70¢ $106 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? SELL Yes 65¢ $83 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? SELL Yes 56¢ $25 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? SELL Yes 65¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? SELL Yes 66¢ $13 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? SELL Yes 6¢ $17 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1416 history records