Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:42:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x3607…c427 sports 323 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$657 (-11%) realized −$631 · open −$26
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%109W / 209L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day18.3pace
Fees−$81est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days−$95
14 days−$83
30 days−$691
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$851
other 25% +$138
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -2.6% -11.9% 29% 29% -16.1%
≤30d 318 -6.4% -15.4% 34% 34% -20.0%
≤90d 318 -6.4% -15.4% 34% 34% -20.0%
all 318 -6.4% -15.4% 34% 34% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 34% -20.0%
10% -23.5% 34% -27.7%
15% -30.9% 32% -34.6%
20% -37.6% 29% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$19 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$631
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses109 / 209
Est. fees paid−$81
Open positions5
Markets (closed)318 / 323
History coverage22d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day18.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 318 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 4 Major Playoffs G2 Minnesota 65¢ 100¢ $24 $37 +$13 (+54%)
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 4 Major Playoffs Paris Gentle Mates 48¢ 26¢ $30 $17 −$13 (-45%)
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Carolina Royal Ravens - Game 3 Winner Carolina Royal Ravens 23¢ 14¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-38%)
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Carolina Royal Ravens - Game 1 Winner Carolina Royal Ravens 23¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Carolina Royal Ravens - Game 2 Winner Carolina Royal Ravens 34¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 206 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ assists Jun 26 $10 +$83 +805%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $18 +$24 +128%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $9 −$9 -98%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Alexander Isak: 1+ assists Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $17 −$17 -98%
Breel Embolo: 1+ assists Jun 24 $14 +$93 +650%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $30 −$29 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $21 −$20 -98%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $10 +$13 +129%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $16 +$8 +50%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: England (-3.5) Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $9 −$9 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $19 +$27 +140%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists Jun 23 $10 +$19 +188%
Bradley Barcola: 1+ assists Jun 22 $9 −$9 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 22 $14 −$14 -97%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 22 $15 −$15 -97%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -97%
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $70 −$70 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-5.5) Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $20 +$56 +276%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $20 +$38 +188%
Spread: Uruguay (-3.5) Jun 21 $40 −$39 -97%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assists Jun 21 $19 +$46 +238%
Spread: Uruguay (-4.5) Jun 21 $8 −$8 -97%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $45 −$44 -98%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ assists Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $27 +$118 +442%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 20 $20 +$38 +188%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 20 $20 +$18 +90%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $20 +$9 +44%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $70 −$69 -98%
Leroy Sané: 1+ assists Jun 20 $19 −$19 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Carolina Royal Ravens - Game 3 Wi BUY Carolina Royal Ravens 23¢ $10 1h
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Carolina Royal Ravens - Game 2 Wi BUY Carolina Royal Ravens 34¢ $12 1h
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Carolina Royal Ravens - Game 1 Wi BUY Carolina Royal Ravens 23¢ $10 1h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le BUY Paris Gentle Mates 48¢ $30 1h
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty Leag BUY G2 Minnesota 65¢ $24 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $42 13h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 22¢ $9 18h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 10¢ $21 18h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $18 18h
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $10 25h
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $10 25h
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ assists BUY Yes 11¢ $10 25h
Alexander Isak: 1+ assists BUY Yes 11¢ $10 25h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 34¢ $20 25h
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 2.5 BUY Over 10¢ $21 25h
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $17 25h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 35¢ $30 47h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland $21 47h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 18¢ $10 47h
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $10 47h
Breel Embolo: 1+ assists BUY Yes 13¢ $14 47h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 16¢ $21 2d
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 39¢ $20 2d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 11¢ $10 3d
Spread: England (-3.5) BUY England 20¢ $10 3d
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 38¢ $10 3d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 61¢ $9 3d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists BUY Yes 20¢ $10 3d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 43¢ $10 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 66¢ $16 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.73 · official $59.73 (match) · 476 history records