Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:01:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
36 0x3607…c08b sports 328 markets active 2h ago coverage 1150d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,831 (-33%) realized −$2,819 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate28%88W / 229L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$213now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$456
7 days+$62
14 days+$150
30 days+$150
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% −$833
sports 27% −$11
politics 19% −$874
world 16% −$419
crypto 2% −$5
tech 2% −$56
finance 1% −$104
economics 1% −$38
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-35.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +4.3% -5.7% 25% 24% -6.9%
≤30d 77 -1.4% -10.8% 25% 22% -4.6%
≤90d 77 -1.4% -10.8% 25% 22% -4.6%
all 317 -29.2% -35.9% 28% 26% -35.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.9% 26% -35.5%
10% -42.1% 23% -41.7%
15% -47.7% 20% -47.3%
20% -52.8% 14% -52.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$21 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1150d coverage
Net worth$213
Realized−$2,819
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses88 / 229
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions11
Markets (closed)317 / 328
History coverage1150d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 317 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Yes 60¢ 60¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Yes 56¢ 56¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 57¢ 56¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 40¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Over 28¢ 28¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 2.5 Over 33¢ 32¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-5%)
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 2.5 Over 24¢ 22¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-10%)
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-35%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$37 +73%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $25 +$37 +146%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $47 +$24 +50%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $50 +$21 +41%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $51 +$84 +165%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $61 +$48 +79%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $26 −$6 -22%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 −$3 -16%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 23 $21 −$3 -12%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 −$3 -16%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 23 $21 −$3 -14%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 23 $21 −$4 -19%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 −$2 -12%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 −$2 -10%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 −$2 -9%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 −$2 -8%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 −$3 -17%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 −$4 -19%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 23 $21 −$4 -20%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 −$4 -22%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 23 $21 −$5 -24%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 −$2 -8%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 −$2 -8%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 −$2 -8%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? Jun 23 $21 −$1 -5%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 +$5 +26%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $425 −$419 -99%
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $58 +$2 +4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 23 $51 −$2 -5%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 −$3 -12%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $76 −$75 -98%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $21 −$5 -26%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $63 −$52 -82%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 22 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $41 +$70 +170%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 +$80 +388%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? Jun 21 $15 +$41 +268%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $21 +$115 +559%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $289 +$438 +151%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 +$4 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $26 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $25 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $25 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $26 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $25 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 28¢ $26 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $25 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $26 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 20h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $25 20h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $51 20h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $71 21h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $71 21h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 22h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 24h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $47 24h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $51 24h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $61 24h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $17 44h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $18 44h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $17 44h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $18 44h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $19 44h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $17 44h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $18 44h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $18 44h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $19 44h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $19 44h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $17 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $213.34 · official $213.34 (match) · 842 history records