Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:36:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
36 0x3607…2f38 sports 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$522 (+11%) realized +$561 · open −$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate63%22W / 13L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day15.2pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$353
other 14% +$863
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +25.5% +13.5% 63% 57% +3.0%
≤30d 35 +25.5% +13.5% 63% 57% +3.0%
≤90d 35 +25.5% +13.5% 63% 57% +3.0%
all 35 +25.5% +13.5% 63% 57% +3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.5% 57% +3.0%
10% +2.7% 54% -6.9%
15% -7.3% 37% -15.9%
20% -16.4% 23% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +66% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$100 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$561
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses22 / 13
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 49
History coverage6d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day15.2
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 45¢ 10¢ $50 $11 −$39 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $50 +$14 +27%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $50 +$12 +24%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $25 +$9 +36%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1 $0 +21%
Panama vs. England: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $25 +$24 +93%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $101 +$46 +46%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $404 −$400 -99%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $101 −$101 -100%
Norway vs. France: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $101 +$71 +70%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $101 −$79 -78%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $101 −$100 -99%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $101 −$100 -99%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $101 +$58 +57%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $101 −$77 -76%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $101 −$100 -99%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $101 +$31 +31%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $101 +$7 +7%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $101 +$3 +3%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $101 +$44 +44%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $101 −$101 -100%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $101 +$71 +70%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $101 +$50 +50%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $101 +$31 +30%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $102 +$34 +33%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $102 +$51 +50%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $406 +$363 +90%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $444 −$24 -5%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $101 −$11 -11%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $102 +$34 +33%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $10 +$45 +440%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $45 +$26 +56%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 23 $149 +$818 +550%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $51 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $51 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 78¢ $50 4h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 80¢ $50 4h
Panama vs. England: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $25 6h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 73¢ $25 6h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina (-2.5) AND Spread: Croati BUY 14¢ $10 10h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? A BUY 12¢ $6 10h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 82¢ $1 10h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? A BUY 43¢ $420 14h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 65¢ $404 24h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 14¢ $22 31h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 55¢ $101 34h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 68¢ $101 34h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 78¢ $101 34h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 68¢ $101 34h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 63¢ $101 34h
Norway vs. France: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $101 34h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 17¢ $24 2d
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 70¢ $101 2d
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $101 2d
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $101 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Under 82¢ $108 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 76¢ $101 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 72¢ $1 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 72¢ $31 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 72¢ $28 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 72¢ $4 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 72¢ $4 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 72¢ $30 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 72¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.56 · official $424.84 · 110 history records