Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:45:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
36 0x3605…e7cb crypto 409 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$472 (-2%) realized −$469 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate72%295W / 112L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day13.7pace
Fees−$136est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$132now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$114
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$397
crypto 35% −$209
other 5% +$22
world 0% −$54
weather 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 35 -32.6% -39.0% 49% 23% -9.7%
≤90d 266 -10.7% -19.2% 67% 30% -12.5%
all 407 -8.2% -16.9% 72% 23% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 23% -12.1%
10% -24.9% 13% -20.5%
15% -32.1% 9% -28.2%
20% -38.8% 6% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$24 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$132
Realized−$469
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses295 / 112
Est. fees paid−$136
Open positions2
Markets (closed)407 / 409
History coverage116d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day13.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 407 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $99 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 37¢ 34¢ $35 $33 −$2 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $85 −$84 -99%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $145 +$40 +27%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $120 +$20 +17%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $111 +$8 +8%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $186 +$19 +10%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $9 −$3 -29%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $33 −$33 -99%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $140 +$14 +10%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $49 −$48 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $55 +$12 +22%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $48 +$8 +16%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $36 +$11 +31%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $20 +$15 +73%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $252 +$68 +27%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 14 $191 +$61 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $300 +$5 +2%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $23 +$1 +4%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 14 $180 +$2 +1%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $61 +$2 +3%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5 May 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5 May 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 28 $5 −$5 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 May 28 $5 −$5 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 May 28 $5 −$5 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 May 28 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Republic of Ireland (-1.5) May 28 $32 −$1 -5%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 28 $51 −$5 -10%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Heroic - Map 2 Winner May 28 $103 −$37 -35%
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Vit Kopriva May 28 $58 −$35 -61%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner May 28 $50 +$2 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Tabilo vs Valentin Vacherot May 28 $21 −$1 -5%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 28 $26 −$20 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Spread: Leeds United FC (-1.5) May 11 $18 −$3 -17%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner May 11 $630 −$274 -44%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner May 11 $42 +$5 +11%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs DN SOOPers Challengers - Game 1 Winner May 11 $262 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 11 $72 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 11 $3 +$2 +94%
LoL: T1 Academy vs Gen.G Global Academy - Game 2 Winner May 11 $288 +$11 +4%
LoL: T1 Academy vs Gen.G Global Academy - Game 1 Winner May 11 $195 +$30 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 11 $8 +$2 +22%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne May 11 $39 +$51 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 11 $158 −$69 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 11 $98 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 11 $60 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 37¢ $36 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $100 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 68¢ $85 8d
Spread: Austria (-2.5) SELL Jordan 90¢ $161 8d
Spread: Austria (-2.5) SELL Jordan 90¢ $5 8d
Spread: Austria (-2.5) SELL Jordan 90¢ $4 8d
Spread: Austria (-2.5) SELL Jordan 90¢ $4 8d
Spread: Austria (-2.5) SELL Jordan 90¢ $4 8d
Spread: Austria (-2.5) SELL Jordan 90¢ $4 8d
Spread: Austria (-2.5) SELL Jordan 90¢ $4 8d
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Jordan 70¢ $145 8d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 86¢ $140 8d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 73¢ $95 8d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 72¢ $24 8d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 66¢ $119 8d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 90¢ $205 8d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $111 8d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $186 8d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL Senegal 6¢ $7 8d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 8¢ $9 8d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 81¢ $33 8d
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL Senegal 85¢ $14 8d
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL Senegal 85¢ $71 8d
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL Senegal 85¢ $35 8d
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL Senegal 85¢ $17 8d
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL Senegal 85¢ $17 8d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 77¢ $20 8d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 77¢ $120 8d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 61¢ $49 8d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 95¢ $68 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $131.56 · official $131.89 (match) · 2005 history records