Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:05:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x35ff…5d9c world 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$23 (-18%) realized −$11 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day22.4pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$13
other 23% −$4
culture 11% −$14
crypto 4% $0
politics 3% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-55.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -50.9% -55.6% 0% 0% -53.4%
≤30d 5 -50.9% -55.6% 0% 0% -53.4%
≤90d 5 -50.9% -55.6% 0% 0% -53.4%
all 5 -50.9% -55.6% 0% 0% -53.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -55.6% 0% -53.4%
10% ← realistic here -59.8% 0% -57.9%
15% -63.7% 0% -62.0%
20% -67.3% 0% -65.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$5 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$11
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 5
Open positions8
Markets (closed)5 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day22.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 77¢ 73¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-5%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Yes 48¢ 27¢ $24 $14 −$11 (-44%)
US strike on Colombia by December 31? No 79¢ 80¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 70¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? Yes 75¢ 71¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $3 $0 -4%
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? Jun 16 $9 −$4 -39%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 16 $19 −$2 -12%
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY Yes 88¢ $5 0m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 29m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 40m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 46m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 50m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 50m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 52m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 56m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 59m
US strike on Colombia by December 31? BUY No 79¢ $5 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 70¢ $5 1h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? BUY No 76¢ $5 2h
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 4h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? BUY No 77¢ $5 4h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? BUY No 77¢ $5 4h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 5h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $3 6h
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 6h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 36¢ $17 6h
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri BUY No 39¢ $4 13h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 16h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 16h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 40¢ $15 16h
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? BUY Yes 15¢ $9 18h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $0 23h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $3 23h
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? BUY No 18¢ $14 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.34 · official $67.58 (match) · 30 history records