trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -50.9% | -55.6% | 0% | 0% | -53.4% |
| ≤30d | 5 | -50.9% | -55.6% | 0% | 0% | -53.4% |
| ≤90d | 5 | -50.9% | -55.6% | 0% | 0% | -53.4% |
| all | 5 | -50.9% | -55.6% | 0% | 0% | -53.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -55.6% | 0% | -53.4% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -59.8% | 0% | -57.9% |
| 15% | -63.7% | 0% | -62.0% |
| 20% | -67.3% | 0% | -65.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? | Yes | 90¢ | 90¢ | $15 | $15 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | No | 77¢ | 73¢ | $15 | $14 | −$1 (-5%) |
| Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? | Yes | 48¢ | 27¢ | $24 | $14 | −$11 (-44%) |
| US strike on Colombia by December 31? | No | 79¢ | 80¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 (+1%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Yes | 99¢ | 99¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? | No | 70¢ | 68¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-4%) |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 13¢ | 12¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-4%) |
| Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? | Yes | 75¢ | 71¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-5%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 16 | $3 | $0 | -4% |
| Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? | Jun 16 | $9 | −$4 | -39% |
| Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? | Jun 16 | $19 | −$2 | -12% |
| Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri | Jun 16 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? | Jun 16 | $14 | −$14 | -100% |