Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:07:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
35 0x35fd…7d53 weather 1293 markets active 2h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$78 (+3%) realized +$77 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR66%break-even
Win rate86%1103W / 174L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day13.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$3
14 days+$5
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$51
sports 0% $0
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -4.8% -13.8% 80% 65% -12.3%
≤30d 242 -0.2% -9.7% 85% 68% -9.5%
≤90d 1176 +2.2% -7.5% 87% 68% -7.4%
all 1277 +1.9% -7.8% 86% 66% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 66% -7.7%
10% -16.6% 28% -16.6%
15% -24.7% 1% -24.6%
20% -32.1% 0% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$77
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses1103 / 174
Open positions16
Markets (closed)1277 / 1293
History coverage99d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day13.7
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 1277 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? No 74¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+35%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 15? No 82¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? No 84¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? No 82¢ 96¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16? No 79¢ 92¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? No 88¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? No 76¢ 84¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 16? No 86¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16? No 85¢ 92¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 17? No 87¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? No 88¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? No 83¢ 88¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? No 88¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? No 98¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 16? No 80¢ 70¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 15? No 86¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? Jun 13 $2 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $2 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 12 $2 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 10? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 10? Jun 11 $2 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 10 $0 $0 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 9? Jun 10 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 10 $2 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 9? Jun 10 $2 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $2 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on June 9? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 8? Jun 09 $2 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 09 $2 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 8? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 8? Jun 09 $2 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 7? Jun 08 $2 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 79¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 76¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 88¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 87¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 83¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 16? BUY No 80¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 82¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY No 82¢ $2 34h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 84¢ $2 34h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 16? BUY No 86¢ $2 40h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 78¢ $2 40h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY No 74¢ $2 41h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? BUY No 88¢ $2 44h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 87¢ $2 44h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $2 44h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY No 86¢ $2 44h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 88¢ $2 44h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? BUY No 86¢ $2 45h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 85¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 74¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 87¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? BUY No 80¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? BUY No 87¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? BUY No 84¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 84¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 76¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.06 · official $33.35 · 2780 history records