Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:26:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x35fc…431d world 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 253d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-2%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate31%8W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$5
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$4
other 35% −$15
sports 11% $0
politics 7% −$1
economics 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 9 +2.2% -7.5% 67% 0% -7.7%
≤90d 11 +0.4% -9.2% 55% 0% -8.3%
all 26 -1.5% -10.9% 31% 0% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 0% -11.2%
10% -19.4% 0% -19.7%
15% -27.2% 0% -27.5%
20% -34.4% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

253d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses8 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage253d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $6 $0 +8%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $55 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $23 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $39 +$3 +8%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $55 +$1 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $54 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $45 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $2 $0 -7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $4 $0 +7%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $8 −$1 -14%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 25 $14 $0 -2%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Jan 31 $37 −$17 -45%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $43 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 22 $23 $0 -0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 22 $21 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $21 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Nov 20 $24 $0 +1%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Oct 13 $25 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Oct 12 $25 $0 -0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 09 $25 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 09 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 08 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $56 1h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $3 10d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $1 10d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $2 10d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $6 10d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $6 10d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $50 11d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $55 11d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $21 11d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2 11d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $8 11d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $15 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $4 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $15 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $19 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $33 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $1 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $21 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 68¢ $54 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 68¢ $1 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 53¢ $23 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 53¢ $28 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 53¢ $4 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $54 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $14 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $31 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $9 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $36 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.83 · official $55.77 (match) · 195 history records