Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:51:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x35fb…8511 weather 138 markets active 0h ago coverage 770d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$507 (-7%) realized −$445 · open −$62
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate38%39W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$267now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$338
7 days−$349
14 days−$350
30 days−$350
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% −$7
crypto 22% −$5
world 8% −$234
sports 8% −$6
weather 6% −$168
other 4% −$6
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-46.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -46.5% -51.6% 23% 19% -37.0%
≤30d 53 -47.0% -52.1% 23% 19% -37.1%
≤90d 53 -47.0% -52.1% 23% 19% -37.1%
all 102 -40.7% -46.4% 38% 19% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.4% 19% -14.7%
10% -51.5% 13% -22.8%
15% -56.2% 11% -30.3%
20% -60.5% 8% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

770d coverage
Net worth$267
Realized−$445
Unrealized−$62
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses39 / 63
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions36
Markets (closed)102 / 138
History coverage770d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 36 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Sharks 61¢ 100¢ $50 $82 +$32 (+64%)
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $52 $51 −$1 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $36 $22 −$14 (-40%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 26? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 26? Yes 25¢ 21¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 26? Yes 46¢ 48¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 27? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 27? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 26? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+27%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 27? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+123%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 26? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-20%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 38°C on June 26? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $7 $4 −$2 (-32%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 26? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-32%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 27? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $2 +$2 (+300%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 26? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+27%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 26? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+200%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 26? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C or below on June 27? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 25? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $8 $1 −$8 (-94%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 25? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $1 −$10 (-95%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 26? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C on June 25? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 26? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 25 $7 +$6 +80%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 25 $104 −$59 -57%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 25 $25 −$16 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 25? Jun 25 $8 +$12 +142%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 25? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 26? Jun 25 $26 −$5 -20%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 25? Jun 25 $10 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 25? Jun 25 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $19 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 25? Jun 24 $11 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C or below on June 25? Jun 24 $2 +$2 +90%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 24 $30 −$19 -64%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 24 $117 +$105 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 24? Jun 24 $23 −$22 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 24? Jun 24 $4 +$9 +200%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 24 $9 −$4 -44%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 24 $51 +$27 +54%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 24 $117 −$115 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C or higher on June 24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C or below on June 24? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 38°C on June 24? Jun 24 $6 −$6 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 24? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 24? Jun 24 $15 −$7 -45%
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 41°C on June 24? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 19, 2026? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $29 −$29 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $73 −$73 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $53 $0 +0%
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs Walczaki (+1.5) Jun 23 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C on June 24? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 40°C on June 24? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 39°C on June 24? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $20 +$17 +86%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $25 −$11 -43%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $2 $0 -5%
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 23 $4 −$2 -40%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $49 −$17 -35%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $22 −$9 -39%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $103 +$29 +28%
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 26? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 20m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 26? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 33m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 26? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 34m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 26? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 34m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 26? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 36m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 26? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 37m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 26? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 37m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 26? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 38m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 26? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 38m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 26? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 42m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 26? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 43m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 26? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 44m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 26? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 44m
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 26? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 57m
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 57m
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? BUY Yes 36¢ $11 57m
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 26? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 57m
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 26? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 59m
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Sharks 61¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A SELL Sharks 55¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A SELL Sharks 54¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL Yes 66¢ $13 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $10 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $8 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 2¢ $5 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 2¢ $14 1h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B SELL ECHO 100¢ $104 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 27? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 27? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $267.04 · official $266.88 (match) · 893 history records