Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:48:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
35 0x35fb…4ce5 other 130 markets active 1h ago coverage 271d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,698 (-17%) realized −$4,699 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate29%38W / 91L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$208per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$30
14 days−$30
30 days−$427
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$1,943
sports 16% −$861
crypto 9% −$2,201
world 6% +$169
economics 0% +$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 3 -55.9% -60.1% 33% 33% -77.6%
≤90d 15 +22.0% +10.4% 40% 40% -27.7%
all 129 +9.4% -1.0% 29% 28% -26.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.0% 28% -26.0%
10% -10.5% 28% -33.1%
15% -19.1% 26% -39.5%
20% -27.1% 26% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +14% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$340 vs −$195 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

271d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized−$4,699
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses38 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)129 / 130
History coverage271d
Avg bet$208
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $124 $125 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 91 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $131 +$34 +26%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $438 −$430 -98%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5 May 18 $92 +$358 +388%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $471 −$460 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $553 −$540 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $377 −$370 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $855 −$395 -46%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $185 +$306 +165%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $275 +$218 +79%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15? Apr 12 $130 −$129 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 12 $530 +$456 +86%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $90 +$398 +442%
Will Czechia win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $125 −$122 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $120 −$117 -97%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 18 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $330 +$670 +203%
Spread: Tottenham Hotspur FC (-1.5) Mar 18 $105 −$105 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 18 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $240 −$240 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $240 −$240 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $310 −$310 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 14 $210 −$210 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-15? Mar 14 $250 −$250 -100%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) Mar 12 $55 +$445 +810%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-11? Mar 12 $260 +$740 +285%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $135 −$135 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-25? Feb 28 $120 +$380 +317%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Feb 27 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-02-25? Feb 25 $170 −$170 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25? Feb 25 $210 −$210 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-25? Feb 25 $320 −$320 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-24? Feb 25 $220 +$780 +354%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-02-24? Feb 24 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-22? Feb 22 $128 −$128 -100%
Getafe CF vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 3.5 Feb 22 $65 −$65 -100%
Getafe CF vs. Sevilla FC: Both Teams to Score Feb 22 $87 −$87 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-22? Feb 22 $180 −$180 -100%
Getafe CF vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 1.5 Feb 22 $172 −$172 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Real Oviedo end in a draw? Feb 21 $120 +$380 +317%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $105 +$395 +376%
Manchester City FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5 Feb 21 $175 −$175 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $885 −$885 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-18? Feb 19 $60 +$440 +733%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-18? Feb 18 $240 −$240 -100%
Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2026-02-18? Feb 18 $165 −$165 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-17? Feb 18 $660 +$840 +127%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 17 $59 +$54 +91%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-02-17? Feb 17 $110 −$110 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $126 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 4¢ $31 35h
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $68 16d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $88 16d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $110 16d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 16d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 16d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 41¢ $438 19d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 20¢ $92 42d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 23¢ $471 42d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? BUY Yes 18¢ $184 43d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? BUY Yes 18¢ $369 43d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 37¢ $377 50d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? SELL Yes 44¢ $3 63d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? SELL Yes 44¢ $3 63d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? SELL Yes 44¢ $5 63d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? SELL Yes 44¢ $4 63d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? SELL Yes 44¢ $3 63d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? SELL Yes 44¢ $13 63d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? SELL Yes 44¢ $50 63d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? SELL Yes 44¢ $1 63d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? SELL Yes 44¢ $2 63d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? SELL Yes 44¢ $10 63d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? SELL Yes 44¢ $2 63d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? SELL Yes 44¢ $4 63d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? SELL Yes 44¢ $4 63d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? SELL Yes 44¢ $20 63d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? SELL Yes 44¢ $30 63d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? SELL Yes 44¢ $32 63d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? SELL Yes 44¢ $1 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.12 · official $125.12 (match) · 416 history records