Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:14:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

35 0x35f8…daa1 other 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$14,984 (+17%) realized +$15,085 · open −$101

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip

Net edge-45%after slip

Net WR55%break-even

Win rate55%6W / 5L

Drawdown21%max

Avg bet$6,227per market

Trades / day40.1pace

Fees−$691est.

Kalshi-fit43%portable

Net worth$19,571now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +55%

net ROI/market (all)-28.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	-20.7%	-28.3%	55%	55%	+10.5%
≤30d	11	-20.7%	-28.3%	55%	55%	+10.5%
≤90d	11	-20.7%	-28.3%	55%	55%	+10.5%
all	11	-20.7%	-28.3%	55%	55%	+10.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover40.1 tr/day

realistic slip~18%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-28.3%	55%	+10.5%
10%	-35.1%	36%	-0.1%
15% ← realistic here	-41.4%	36%	-9.7%
20%	-47.1%	18%	-18.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 61% · top 2 82% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -21% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

12.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$3,911 vs −$1,714 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.74 per $1 lost it wins $2.74

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$19,571

Realized+$15,085

Unrealized−$101

Win rate (resolved)55%

Wins / losses6 / 5

Est. fees paid−$691

Open positions3

Markets (closed)11 / 14

History coverage4d

Avg bet$6,227

Trades / day40.1

Drawdown21%

Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 11 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Yes	32¢	32¢	$12,160	$11,970	−$190 (-2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	No	42¢	42¢	$7,392	$7,480	+$88 (+1%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)	Max Holloway	66¢	66¢	$120	$121	+$1 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?	Jun 28	$34,790	+$14,210	+41%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$395	−$395	-100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$2,786	−$2,786	-100%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw?	Jun 27	$13,870	+$5,130	+37%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$1,751	+$1,029	+59%
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$3,088	−$3,088	-100%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw?	Jun 26	$6,364	+$1,036	+16%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$1,901	+$2,059	+108%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$534	−$534	-100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$1,766	−$1,766	-100%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw?	Jun 24	$15	+$2	+11%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)	BUY Max Holloway	66¢	$120	1m
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw?	BUY Yes	32¢	$12,408	3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY No	42¢	$7,392	4h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?	BUY No	71¢	$24	10h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?	BUY No	71¢	$22,146	10h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?	BUY No	71¢	$12	10h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?	BUY No	71¢	$5	10h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?	BUY No	71¢	$7	10h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?	BUY No	71¢	$122	10h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?	BUY No	71¢	$12	10h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?	BUY No	71¢	$249	10h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?	BUY No	71¢	$291	10h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?	BUY No	71¢	$24	10h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?	BUY No	71¢	$2	10h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?	BUY No	71¢	$12	10h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?	BUY No	71¢	$7	10h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?	BUY No	71¢	$13	10h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?	BUY No	71¢	$37	10h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?	BUY No	71¢	$2	10h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?	BUY No	71¢	$55	10h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?	BUY No	71¢	$37	10h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?	BUY No	71¢	$10	10h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?	BUY No	71¢	$475	10h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?	BUY No	71¢	$4	10h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?	BUY No	71¢	$123	10h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?	BUY No	71¢	$61	10h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?	BUY No	71¢	$49	10h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?	BUY No	71¢	$1,506	10h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?	BUY No	71¢	$86	10h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?	BUY No	71¢	$734	10h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19,571.29 · official $19,571.29 (match) · 188 history records