Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:16:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x35f7…6025 other 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$52 (-22%) realized −$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%6W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$14
sports 46% −$37
crypto 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-32.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -25.3% -32.4% 19% 19% -30.9%
≤30d 31 -25.3% -32.4% 19% 19% -30.9%
≤90d 31 -25.3% -32.4% 19% 19% -30.9%
all 31 -25.3% -32.4% 19% 19% -30.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.4% 19% -30.9%
10% -38.9% 16% -37.5%
15% -44.8% 16% -43.5%
20% -50.2% 13% -49.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 81% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$5 · ×2.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses6 / 25
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage5d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 34¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $8 −$6 -79%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$11 +238%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -91%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $12 −$9 -77%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $9 −$1 -12%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $2 +$3 +123%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $14 −$9 -60%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $8 −$2 -27%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -42%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $6 +$37 +596%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -92%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $25 −$23 -91%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $50 −$1 -2%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $12 −$10 -84%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $8 +$24 +311%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +38%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 $0 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 38m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 27h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $8 30h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 46h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? SELL Yes 32¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 2d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 36¢ $11 2d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $7 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.45 · official $3.45 (match) · 64 history records