trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | No | 75¢ | 56¢ | $60 | $44 | −$16 (-26%) |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? | No | 87¢ | 88¢ | $10 | $10 | +$0 (+1%) |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? | No | 60¢ | 58¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-3%) |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 | No | 81¢ | 76¢ | $10 | $9 | −$1 (-5%) |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? | No | 55¢ | 50¢ | $10 | $9 | −$1 (-9%) |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? | No | 74¢ | 67¢ | $10 | $9 | −$1 (-9%) |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? | No | 46¢ | 40¢ | $10 | $9 | −$1 (-12%) |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? | No | 52¢ | 44¢ | $10 | $8 | −$2 (-16%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | No | 84¢ | 84¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? | Jun 13 | $5 | +$1 | +26% |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele | Jun 09 | $2 | $0 | -2% |
| Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen | Jun 09 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June | Jun 07 | $10 | $0 | +2% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | Jun 07 | $50 | +$15 | +30% |
| Claude 4.8 released by May 31? | Jun 02 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 1? | Jun 02 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? | Jun 01 | $47 | +$13 | +28% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 31 | $37 | +$9 | +23% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 28 | $30 | +$3 | +11% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 28 | $1 | $0 | +28% |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in May? | May 28 | $1 | $0 | +10% |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in May? | May 25 | $30 | +$2 | +8% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 | May 23 | $30 | +$3 | +9% |
| Starmer out by May 15, 2026? | May 16 | $10 | +$1 | +11% |
| UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) | May 10 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | +11.4% | +0.8% | 80% | 40% | +12.1% |
| ≤30d | 16 | -0.7% | -10.2% | 81% | 44% | +6.6% |
| ≤90d | 17 | -6.6% | -15.5% | 76% | 41% | +6.2% |
| all | 17 | -6.6% | -15.5% | 76% | 41% | +6.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -15.5% | 41% | +6.2% |
| 10% | -23.6% | 29% | -4.0% |
| 15% | -31.0% | 0% | -13.2% |
| 20% | -37.7% | 0% | -21.8% |