Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:53:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
35 0x35f2…527b other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate69%9W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$250per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$13
14 days−$13
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$2
crypto 40% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.5% -10.0% 62% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 13 -0.3% -9.8% 69% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 13 -0.3% -9.8% 69% 0% -9.9%
all 13 -0.3% -9.8% 69% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses9 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage8d
Avg bet$250
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $298 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $298 −$15 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $99 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $198 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $398 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $99 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $296 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 18 $168 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $299 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $298 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? Jun 16 $298 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? Jun 16 $299 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $199 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $298 1h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $298 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 95¢ $272 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 99¢ $11 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 99¢ $298 28h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $99 30h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 31h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $200 31h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 43h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 43h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $3 43h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $3 43h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $30 43h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $6 43h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $221 2d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $21 2d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 2d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 2d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $21 2d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $21 2d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 2d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 2d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 2d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $8 2d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $398 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 3d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $297 3d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $296 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 61 history records