Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:23:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.5

score

35 0x35f0…000f sports 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$7,329 (+36%) realized +$7,269 · open +$60

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +125% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +96% what you keep after slip

Net edge+96%after slip

Net WR53%break-even

Win rate67%10W / 5L

Drawdown16%max

Avg bet$1,133per market

Trades / day0.9pace

Fees−$69est.

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$4,280now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days+$15

14 days+$15

30 days+$3,071

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +53%

net ROI/market (all)+103.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+10.8%	+0.3%	100%	100%	+0.3%
≤30d	3	+53.9%	+39.2%	100%	100%	+65.6%
≤90d	15	+125.0%	+103.5%	67%	53%	+24.2%
all	15	+125.0%	+103.5%	67%	53%	+24.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.9 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+103.5%	53%	+24.2%
10%	+84.1%	27%	+12.3%
15%	+66.3%	27%	+1.4%
20%	+50.0%	20%	-8.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 31% · top 2 61% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +45% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

10% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +125% · $-wt +45% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +240% → late +24% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$830 vs −$263 · ×3.16 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×6.32 per $1 lost it wins $6.32

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage

Net worth$4,280

Realized+$7,269

Unrealized+$60

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses10 / 5

Est. fees paid−$69

Open positions3

Markets (closed)15 / 18

History coverage70d

Avg bet$1,133

Trades / day0.9

Drawdown16%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	98¢	99¢	$2,345	$2,361	+$16 (+1%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	74¢	90¢	$966	$1,164	+$198 (+20%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	17¢	14¢	$909	$755	−$153 (-17%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Jackson Blake win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?	Jun 15	$138	+$15	+11%
Will Canada win the 2026 IIHF World Championship?	May 31	$2,406	+$2,530	+105%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	May 30	$1,152	+$526	+46%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?	May 17	$466	+$58	+12%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves	May 17	$1,321	+$262	+20%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?	May 17	$4,697	+$477	+10%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	May 17	$2,044	+$1,834	+90%
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Sabres vs. Canadiens	May 15	$124	−$121	-98%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	May 10	$198	+$2	+1%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Trail Blazers	May 09	$222	−$222	-100%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Pistons vs. Magic	May 04	$2,001	−$639	-32%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Raptors vs. Cavaliers	May 04	$512	+$60	+12%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets	May 03	$232	−$232	-100%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - 76ers vs. Celtics	May 03	$69	+$2,538	+3653%
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentar	Apr 18	$100	−$100	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	13¢	$339	1h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	18¢	$153	1h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	19¢	$8	1h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	19¢	$28	1h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	16¢	$171	1h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	17¢	$91	1h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	17¢	$180	1h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	16¢	$171	1h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	20¢	$21	1h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	19¢	$81	1h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	19¢	$207	1h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	19¢	$102	1h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	18¢	$94	1h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	17¢	$89	1h
Will Jackson Blake win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?	BUY No	90¢	$138	10d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?	BUY No	78¢	$24	36d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?	BUY No	78¢	$8	36d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?	SELL No	78¢	$384	36d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?	SELL No	77¢	$1,527	36d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?	SELL No	80¢	$11	36d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?	SELL No	80¢	$31	36d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?	BUY No	81¢	$4,666	36d
Will Canada win the 2026 IIHF World Championship?	BUY No	48¢	$1,925	36d
Will Canada win the 2026 IIHF World Championship?	BUY No	48¢	$481	36d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	BUY No	45¢	$134	36d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	BUY No	45¢	$135	36d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	74¢	$486	36d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	98¢	$196	36d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	98¢	$2,108	36d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	98¢	$42	36d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,279.64 · official $4,279.64 (match) · 110 history records