Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:40:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x35f0…971e sports 239 markets active 0h ago coverage 48d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,799 (-3%) realized −$1,775 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%115W / 123L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$249per market
Trades / day22.0pace
Fees−$885est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$615now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 48d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$4,419
crypto 1% −$438
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -12.2% -20.6% 52% 52% -17.5%
≤30d 176 +6.3% -3.8% 53% 51% -7.8%
≤90d 238 -1.6% -11.0% 48% 46% -17.4%
all 238 -1.6% -11.0% 48% 46% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 46% -17.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 42% -25.3%
15% -27.3% 39% -32.5%
20% -34.4% 33% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$160 vs −$190 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$615
Realized−$1,775
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses115 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$885
Open positions2
Markets (closed)238 / 239
History coverage48d
Avg bet$249
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 238 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage illwill 42¢ 40¢ $414 $388 −$26 (-6%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs 100 Thieves 55¢ 56¢ $226 $227 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 103 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 16 $122 −$122 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $174 +$68 +39%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 16 $385 −$381 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $322 −$320 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $933 +$438 +47%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $613 −$605 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $143 +$57 +40%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $80 +$19 +24%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $381 +$553 +145%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $805 −$798 -99%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $144 +$82 +57%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $274 +$352 +129%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $103 −$102 -99%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 13 $144 −$142 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $196 +$79 +40%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $144 +$66 +46%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $520 +$330 +63%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $194 −$191 -98%
Counter-Strike: Falcons Force vs OLDBOYS- (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Jun 10 $64 +$61 +96%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $627 −$494 -79%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 10 $104 +$114 +109%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S Jun 10 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $207 −$204 -99%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $62 −$62 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $263 +$193 +73%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 09 $91 −$90 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $584 +$523 +90%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 09 $175 +$76 +43%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Pl Jun 09 $61 +$52 +85%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $14 −$14 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $221 −$216 -98%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Misa Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 09 $159 +$76 +48%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $145 −$143 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $472 +$68 +14%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs RUSTEC (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stag Jun 08 $264 −$31 -12%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $63 +$37 +60%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs MANA eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 05 $392 −$304 -78%
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs STEP (BO3) - United21 Group A Jun 05 $54 +$78 +145%
Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs Johnny Speeds (BO3) - CCT Europe S Jun 05 $265 +$74 +28%
Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs Johnny Speeds - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $212 −$202 -96%
Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs INFURITY Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 05 $66 −$65 -98%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs ASTRAL (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 04 $103 +$83 +81%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $566 −$483 -85%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $270 +$230 +85%
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - United21 Gr Jun 04 $148 +$2 +2%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $101 +$60 +60%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 04 $176 −$173 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $121 +$79 +65%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 03 $249 +$151 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 44¢ $66 15m
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 44¢ $66 15m
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 44¢ $61 16m
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 36¢ $4 32m
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 36¢ $7 33m
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner SELL illwill 95¢ $241 46m
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 40¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 36¢ $60 1h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 35¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 35¢ $17 1h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner BUY illwill 66¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner BUY illwill 66¢ $13 1h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner BUY illwill 66¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner BUY illwill 66¢ $19 1h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner BUY illwill 66¢ $17 1h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner BUY illwill 69¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner BUY illwill 69¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner BUY illwill 69¢ $21 1h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner BUY illwill 69¢ $21 1h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner BUY illwill 68¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner BUY illwill 69¢ $24 1h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner BUY illwill 68¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner BUY illwill 70¢ $18 1h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 55¢ $197 4h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 45¢ $65 5h
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY MARKandLARRY 65¢ $343 5h
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY MARKandLARRY 64¢ $23 5h
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY MARKandLARRY 64¢ $19 5h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 56¢ $32 5h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 45¢ $46 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $615.10 · official $654.40 · 1122 history records