Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:00:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x35ef…8aee crypto 99 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$549 (-18%) realized −$382 · open −$167
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate49%48W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$763now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$80
14 days−$176
30 days−$525
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 39% −$246
politics 34% −$80
tech 13% −$342
crypto 11% −$22
finance 2% −$51
other 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -44.9% -50.2% 50% 0% -16.6%
≤30d 11 -50.8% -55.5% 27% 9% -38.7%
≤90d 98 -19.3% -27.0% 49% 43% -34.4%
all 98 -19.3% -27.0% 49% 43% -34.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.0% 43% -34.4%
10% -34.0% 40% -40.7%
15% -40.4% 11% -46.4%
20% -46.2% 9% -51.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$15 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$763
Realized−$382
Unrealized−$167
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses48 / 50
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)98 / 99
History coverage73d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu Emma Raducanu 69¢ 56¢ $930 $763 −$167 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 21 $113 −$105 -93%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 21 $901 +$25 +3%
Set Handicap: O'Connell (-1.5) vs Bonzi (+1.5) Jun 18 $97 −$96 -99%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 13 $204 −$204 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 13 $127 −$127 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $51 +$14 +29%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -99%
Ilkley: Celine Naef vs Akasha Urhobo Jun 09 $48 +$5 +9%
HSBC Championships: Mika Stojsavljevic vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 09 $50 −$2 -3%
Tyler: Liam Draxl vs Yasutaka Uchiyama Jun 01 $5 $0 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 10 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET May 10 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET May 10 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 10 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 10 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 10 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 10 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 10 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 10 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 10 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 10 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 10 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 10 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 10 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 10 $3 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 10 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 07 $8 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 07 $4 −$3 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 07 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 07 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 07 $4 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 07 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 07 $4 −$3 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 07 $4 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 07 $2 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 65¢ $197 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 70¢ $742 4h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 0¢ $8 5d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $927 5d
Set Handicap: O'Connell (-1.5) vs Bonzi (+1.5) BUY Bonzi 63¢ $97 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 14d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 15d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 21¢ $6 15d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 15d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 15d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 15d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 15d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 21¢ $6 15d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 77¢ $51 15d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 40¢ $127 15d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 60¢ $204 15d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 96¢ $901 15d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 6¢ $13 16d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 6¢ $48 16d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 7¢ $52 17d
Ilkley: Celine Naef vs Akasha Urhobo SELL Celine Naef 66¢ $53 17d
Ilkley: Celine Naef vs Akasha Urhobo BUY Celine Naef 59¢ $48 17d
HSBC Championships: Mika Stojsavljevic vs Marta Kostyuk BUY Marta Kostyuk 51¢ $50 18d
Tyler: Liam Draxl vs Yasutaka Uchiyama BUY Liam Draxl 51¢ $5 26d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $6 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $6 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $762.61 · official $762.75 (match) · 265 history records