Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:30:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x35ed…47ab other 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 614d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate23%12W / 41L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 76% −$10
other 15% −$4
crypto 3% +$1
sports 3% +$13
world 1% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 18 -5.7% -14.6% 11% 0% -11.6%
≤90d 43 +1.9% -7.8% 21% 12% -8.7%
all 53 +1.5% -8.2% 23% 9% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 9% -9.5%
10% -17.0% 9% -18.2%
15% -25.0% 9% -26.1%
20% -32.4% 9% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×3.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

614d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses12 / 41
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage614d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $59 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $9 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $9 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $6 $0 -0%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $11 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in May? Jun 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $50 $0 -0%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $52 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $55 $0 -0%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 11 $6 +$5 +83%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 08 $49 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $47 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $46 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $50 $0 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 02 $47 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $48 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $49 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 30 $51 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $50 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $51 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $48 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 19 $51 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $48 $0 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $6 +$5 +79%
Avalanche vs. Blues Apr 08 $8 +$6 +70%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 08 $11 +$9 +75%
Utah vs. Kraken Apr 06 $7 +$6 +75%
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in March? Apr 02 $30 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? Mar 05 $38 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in January? Feb 13 $37 $0 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 11 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Oct 08 $30 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 30 $17 $0 -1%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 12 $30 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $289 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $9 0m
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $9 2h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $9 23h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $9 27h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $9 4d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $9 4d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $6 6d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $6 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $6 9d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 11d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 11d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 12d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $11 13d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $11 13d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 15d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 15d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $9 20d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $10 25d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $10 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 313 history records