Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:52:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
35 0x35ec…46d4 other 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 126d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$79 (+3%) realized −$165 · open +$244
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$2,630now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 126d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% +$170
sports 5% −$52
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-48.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -42.8% -48.3% 40% 40% -30.8%
≤30d 5 -42.8% -48.3% 40% 40% -30.8%
≤90d 5 -42.8% -48.3% 40% 40% -30.8%
all 5 -42.8% -48.3% 40% 40% -30.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.3% 40% -30.8%
10% -53.2% 40% -37.4%
15% -57.7% 20% -43.5%
20% -61.9% 20% -49.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$80 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$2,630
Realized−$165
Unrealized+$244
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions9
Markets (closed)5 / 14
History coverage126d
Avg bet$213
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 18¢ $491 $755 +$264 (+54%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $491 $524 +$33 (+7%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $491 $451 −$40 (-8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $393 $335 −$58 (-15%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $196 $195 −$1 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $196 $195 −$2 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $98 $97 −$1 (-1%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 0¢ 28¢ $0 $48 +$48 (+0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $99 +$57 +57%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $198 +$57 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $50 0m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $99 7m
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $199 12m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $30 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $197 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $50 23h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $50 23h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $50 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $198 23h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $99 23h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $90 23h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $393 122d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $491 122d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $491 126d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $491 126d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,629.90 · official $2,629.94 (match) · 146 history records