Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:09:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
35 0x35ec…6673 other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 40d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$831 (-52%) realized −$604 · open −$227
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$529per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$387now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 40d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$305
world 47% −$535
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-58.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -37.2% -43.2% 0% 0% -43.2%
≤30d 2 -54.5% -58.9% 0% 0% -67.6%
≤90d 2 -54.5% -58.9% 0% 0% -67.6%
all 2 -54.5% -58.9% 0% 0% -67.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -58.9% 0% -67.6%
10% -62.8% 0% -70.7%
15% -66.4% 0% -73.6%
20% -69.7% 0% -76.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -64% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -55% · $-wt -64% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$307 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$387
Realized−$604
Unrealized−$227
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2 / 3
History coverage40d
Avg bet$529
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $614 $387 −$227 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $211 −$78 -37%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 07 $745 −$535 -72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $132 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $133 2h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 9d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 12¢ $499 11d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $208 13d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $210 13d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $100 27d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $300 30d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $100 30d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $245 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $386.99 · official $386.99 (match) · 23 history records