Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:23:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

35 0x35e9…05fd other 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 231d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$1,387 (-4%) realized −$842 · open −$545

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip

Net edge-26%after slip

Net WR27%break-even

Win rate64%7W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$1,962per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Kalshi-fit35%portable

Net worth$23,031now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$5

7 days−$913

14 days−$913

30 days−$696

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +27%

net ROI/market (all)-26.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-14.0%	-22.2%	75%	50%	-47.4%
≤30d	7	-1.2%	-10.6%	71%	43%	-33.5%
≤90d	7	-1.2%	-10.6%	71%	43%	-33.5%
all	11	-18.4%	-26.2%	64%	27%	-37.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-26.2%	27%	-37.0%
10%	-33.2%	18%	-43.0%
15%	-39.7%	9%	-48.5%
20%	-45.6%	9%	-53.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 72% · top 2 94% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -26% too few recent

Fragile wins

57% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -18% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$44 vs −$292 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.27 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage

Net worth$23,031

Realized−$842

Unrealized−$545

Win rate (resolved)64%

Wins / losses7 / 4

Open positions9

Markets (closed)11 / 20

History coverage231d

Avg bet$1,962

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 9 History 11 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	18¢	$4,755	$5,188	+$433 (+9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	13¢	$4,744	$3,754	−$990 (-21%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	10¢	11¢	$2,896	$3,107	+$212 (+7%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	9¢	11¢	$2,491	$3,079	+$588 (+24%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	10¢	$3,137	$2,938	−$199 (-6%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	9¢	7¢	$2,417	$1,870	−$547 (-23%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	6¢	$1,513	$1,589	+$76 (+5%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	4¢	4¢	$1,123	$1,177	+$54 (+5%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	92¢	60¢	$500	$329	−$171 (-34%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 17	$700	+$5	+1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$1,003	−$1,000	-100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$50	+$14	+27%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$432	+$68	+16%
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	May 22	$20	$0	+1%
Will Trump visit China by March 31?	May 22	$45	−$5	-11%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	May 22	$378	+$222	+59%
Will Xi visit the US by December 31?	Jan 21	$19	+$1	+3%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?	Jan 21	$20	+$1	+3%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Oct 29	$64	−$64	-100%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Oct 29	$100	−$100	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	3¢	$705	6m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	92¢	$501	1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$29	1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$34	1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$54	1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$54	1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$56	1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$69	1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$95	1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	91¢	$1,003	2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	78¢	$50	3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	86¢	$432	5d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$235	6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$459	6d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$535	6d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	9¢	$894	6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	9¢	$914	6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$1,099	6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	12¢	$1,191	6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$1,651	6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$1,742	6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	17¢	$11,632	6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$12,299	6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	9¢	$1,109	14d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	3¢	$321	14d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$494	14d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$691	14d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$1,036	14d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$1,171	14d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	12¢	$1,417	14d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23,031.24 · official $23,033.95 (match) · 111 history records