Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:50:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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35 0x35e9…afff crypto 123 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$15,524 (+18%) realized +$15,524 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate62%76W / 47L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$716per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$725est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 76d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$4,532
crypto 15% −$459
other 0% +$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +27.9% +15.7% 100% 100% +15.7%
≤30d 3 -15.9% -24.0% 67% 67% -55.8%
≤90d 123 -9.4% -18.1% 62% 26% -2.5%
all 123 -9.4% -18.1% 62% 26% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 26% -2.5%
10% -25.9% 18% -11.8%
15% -33.1% 15% -20.3%
20% -39.6% 10% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$184 vs −$209 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$15,524
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses76 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$725
Open positions0
Markets (closed)123 / 123
History coverage76d
Avg bet$716
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 123 Trades
no open positions (36 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $302 +$84 +28%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $809 −$800 -99%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $201 +$49 +24%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 2.5 May 18 $100 +$4 +4%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $615 −$600 -98%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 17 $1,934 −$700 -36%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $8,048 −$100 -1%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 16 $101 +$9 +9%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings May 15 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 15 $16 −$15 -95%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 15 $1,016 −$95 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 13 $5 +$15 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 13 $36 +$16 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 13 $5 +$10 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 13 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 13 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 13 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 13 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 12 $11 +$26 +248%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 12 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 12 $37 +$21 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 12 $26 +$37 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 12 $121 −$20 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 12 $7,167 +$342 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 12 $6 −$1 -8%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals May 12 $3,443 +$2,664 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 11 $122 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 11 $219 +$20 +9%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians May 10 $1,969 −$1,968 -100%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants May 10 $1 $0 +12%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans May 09 $726 +$26 +4%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 08 $1,301 +$43 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 07 $141 −$2 -2%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga May 07 $10,013 +$7,277 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 07 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 07 $25 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 07 $2 +$8 +360%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 07 $132 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 07 $18 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 07 $112 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 1h
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Mumbai Indians 73¢ $101 25d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Mumbai Indians 71¢ $101 25d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Mumbai Indians 70¢ $101 25d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Mumbai Indians 70¢ $101 25d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Mumbai Indians 48¢ $102 25d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Mumbai Indians 51¢ $101 25d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Mumbai Indians 51¢ $101 25d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Mumbai Indians 50¢ $101 25d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings BUY Gujarat Titans 80¢ $101 28d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings BUY Gujarat Titans 80¢ $101 28d
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants BUY Lucknow Super Giants 66¢ $101 30d
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 96¢ $100 31d
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad BUY Chennai Super Kings 17¢ $102 31d
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad BUY Chennai Super Kings 15¢ $103 31d
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad BUY Chennai Super Kings 13¢ $103 31d
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad BUY Chennai Super Kings 12¢ $103 31d
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad BUY Chennai Super Kings 13¢ $103 31d
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad BUY Chennai Super Kings 33¢ $102 31d
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Delhi Capitals 100¢ $281 32d
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 30¢ $102 32d
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 30¢ $102 32d
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Delhi Capitals 71¢ $202 32d
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 34¢ $102 32d
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 37¢ $102 32d
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 36¢ $102 32d
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 23¢ $102 32d
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 26¢ $102 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 747 history records