Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:01:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

35
0x35e6…7a4d
weather · 696 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$746 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,993 · open −$1,304
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$14,605
Realized+$1,993
Unrealized−$1,304
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses289 / 219
Open positions283
Markets (closed)508 / 696
History coverage46d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day72.2
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 283 History 508 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,074
7 days+$1,755
14 days+$1,755
30 days+$1,755
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? No 77¢ 98¢ $259 $332 +$73 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? No 86¢ 90¢ $275 $287 +$12 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 13? No 92¢ 94¢ $276 $283 +$7 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? No 82¢ 88¢ $255 $271 +$16 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 13? No 90¢ 90¢ $255 $258 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? No 94¢ 90¢ $261 $251 −$10 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? No 79¢ 91¢ $209 $242 +$33 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? No 86¢ 78¢ $241 $217 −$25 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 12? No 76¢ 100¢ $157 $205 +$48 (+31%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 14? No 82¢ 81¢ $201 $200 −$1 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? No 72¢ 52¢ $277 $198 −$79 (-29%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? No 95¢ 97¢ $188 $192 +$4 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? No 84¢ 74¢ $216 $191 −$24 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? No 88¢ 81¢ $201 $185 −$16 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 14? No 68¢ 72¢ $167 $176 +$10 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? No 76¢ 70¢ $182 $167 −$14 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? No 63¢ 62¢ $172 $167 −$5 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? No 86¢ 86¢ $166 $166 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 12? No 91¢ 99¢ $153 $166 +$13 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? No 77¢ 66¢ $190 $163 −$27 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 13? No 89¢ 86¢ $159 $155 −$4 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? No 63¢ 56¢ $174 $154 −$20 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? No 92¢ 90¢ $152 $149 −$3 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? No 86¢ 88¢ $139 $144 +$5 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? No 97¢ 99¢ $141 $144 +$3 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on April 6? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on April 6? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 74°F or higher on April 19? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C or higher on April 11? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 12 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 13 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 10? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on April 27? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 75°F or below on April 7? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on April 6? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 1? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on April 15? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on April 22? Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C or higher on Apri Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 7? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C on April 8? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on April 10? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C or below on April 10? Jun 12 $129 −$129 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C or higher on April 20? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 9? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on April 4? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on April 9? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 8? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on April 14? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 7? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on April 6? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on Ap Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on April 9? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 57°F or below on April 4? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on April 13? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on April 23 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on April 24? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on April 6? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on April 12 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on April 4? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on April 4? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on April 6? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or higher on April 20? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on April 5? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on April 13? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on April 7? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 6? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on April 6? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C or higher on April 11? Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on April 3? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on April 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 70-71°F on April 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$1,985
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 64¢ $15 12m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $27 12m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 12m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $65 15m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $17 15m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $17 15m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 67¢ $14 15m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 72¢ $4 16m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $3 16m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $270 16m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $9 21m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $19 27m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 63¢ $16 30m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $17 30m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 65¢ $3 31m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 73¢ $4 32m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $16 33m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 75¢ $27 34m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 63¢ $17 34m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 63¢ $24 37m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? BUY No 75¢ $39 38m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 62¢ $30 39m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 66¢ $5 40m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 65¢ $99 41m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? BUY No 74¢ $5 43m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? BUY No 72¢ $6 43m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 64¢ $5 43m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? BUY No 72¢ $4 44m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? BUY No 72¢ $14 44m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? BUY No 72¢ $6 44m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 438 -24.9% -32.1% 53% 34% -3.8%
≤30d 438 -24.9% -32.1% 53% 34% -3.8%
≤90d 508 -12.8% -21.1% 57% 36% -3.6%
all 508 -12.8% -21.1% 57% 36% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover72.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.1% 36% -3.6%
10% ← realistic here -28.7% 24% -12.8%
15% -35.6% 13% -21.2%
20% -41.9% 6% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14,605.24 · official $14,603.06 (match) · 3500 history records