Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:28:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x35e3…0df5 crypto 524 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$14 (+1%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate81%427W / 97L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day43.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$54
7 days+$40
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$4
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 +4.7% -5.2% 65% 43% +2.6%
≤30d 524 -0.5% -9.9% 81% 32% -9.6%
≤90d 524 -0.5% -9.9% 81% 32% -9.6%
all 524 -0.5% -9.9% 81% 32% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 32% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 20% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 12% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 8% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses427 / 97
Open positions0
Markets (closed)524 / 524
History coverage14d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day43.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 524 Trades
no open positions (71 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$5 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$8 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$4 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$12 +559%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$16 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$8 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$3 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $18 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $18 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $9 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $6 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $17 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $9 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $7 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $14 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1104 history records