Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:16:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x35e3…9188 world 182 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 16d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (205 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,702 (+2%) realized +$2,657 · open +$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate56%95W / 74L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$732per market
Trades / day204.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$17,024now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% +$6,865
crypto 17% +$369
politics 12% +$7,913
other 3% +$236
sports 1% +$26
tech 1% +$68
finance 0% +$8
culture 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (205 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 120 -13.1% -21.4% 48% 28% -1.7%
≤30d 169 +1.1% -8.5% 56% 28% +3.6%
≤90d 169 +1.1% -8.5% 56% 28% +3.6%
all 169 +1.1% -8.5% 56% 28% +3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover204.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 28% +3.6%
10% -17.3% 20% -6.3%
15% ← realistic here -25.3% 15% -15.3%
20% -32.6% 12% -23.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +19% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
12.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$192 vs −$74 · ×2.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.31 per $1 lost it wins $3.31
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$17,024
Realized+$2,657
Unrealized+$45
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses95 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions64
Markets (closed)169 / 182
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$732
Trades / day204.8
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 64 History 169 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $5,000 $5,008 +$8 (+0%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $2,826 $2,864 +$38 (+1%)
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $865 $885 +$20 (+2%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 97¢ 97¢ $642 $642 −$0 (-0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $514 $520 +$5 (+1%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 69¢ 64¢ $552 $516 −$37 (-7%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $484 $496 +$12 (+2%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 91¢ 99¢ $454 $496 +$42 (+9%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 80¢ 74¢ $528 $486 −$42 (-8%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? No 86¢ 97¢ $429 $486 +$57 (+13%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 44¢ 48¢ $418 $458 +$40 (+10%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $412 $416 +$4 (+1%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? No 87¢ 80¢ $435 $402 −$32 (-7%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 88¢ 98¢ $320 $357 +$37 (+12%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 48¢ 42¢ $382 $328 −$54 (-14%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? No 96¢ 95¢ $288 $286 −$2 (-1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $275 $282 +$7 (+2%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 78¢ 78¢ $260 $262 +$2 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $158 $166 +$8 (+5%)
Trump goes to space in 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $161 $163 +$2 (+1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $138 $137 −$1 (-1%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 91¢ 92¢ $111 $112 +$1 (+1%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No 31¢ 47¢ $62 $94 +$32 (+52%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 93¢ $92 $93 +$1 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 92¢ $90 $92 +$2 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 59 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May? Jun 17 $58 −$89 -153%
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $50B and $60B at market close on Jun 17 $2 −$3 -161%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Jun 17 $4 −$8 -196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 17 $64 −$109 -169%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Jun 17 $74 −$141 -190%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 17? Jun 17 $90 −$48 -54%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$12 -146%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$5 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +122%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026? Jun 17 $33 −$64 -194%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? Jun 17 $57 −$88 -154%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 16? Jun 17 $31 +$38 +125%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 17 $40 −$32 -81%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 17 $226 −$226 -100%
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? Jun 17 $4 −$119 -2757%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 17 $80 −$81 -102%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Jun 17 $107 −$204 -190%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 17 $2 +$11 +438%
Gemini 3.2 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $19 −$21 -109%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 17 $214 −$214 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 17 $140 −$1,244 -890%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? Jun 17 $19 +$120 +646%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 17 $42 −$77 -182%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $210 +$84 +40%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $23,421 +$819 +4%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 17 $1,273 +$2,385 +187%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $26 +$22 +85%
Will Trump praise Emmanuel Macron by June 30? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +32%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $479 +$23 +5%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $33 +$17 +52%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? Jun 16 $579 +$7 +1%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $621 +$11 +2%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? Jun 16 $49 +$3 +6%
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri Jun 16 $91 +$9 +10%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $353 +$247 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 62¢ $6 0m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 62¢ $4 0m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 62¢ $4 0m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 63¢ $21 0m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $653 0m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 64¢ $5 0m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 65¢ $13 2m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 66¢ $4 3m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 66¢ $34 3m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 68¢ $21 4m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 69¢ $5 4m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 70¢ $70 4m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 70¢ $18 5m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 70¢ $4 5m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 70¢ $5 8m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $246 9m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 69¢ $14 12m
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 96¢ $6 13m
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 97¢ $27 14m
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 14m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $93 18m
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY No 21¢ $20 19m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 78¢ $4 21m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 78¢ $8 21m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $669 21m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 77¢ $16 22m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $801 22m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $42 23m
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 98¢ $207 23m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 97¢ $48 24m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17,024.46 · official $17,027.35 (match) · 3500 history records