Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:13:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x35e2…0cbd crypto 1698 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 26d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (71 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,545 (-29%) realized −$3,542 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate93%1619W / 129L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day71.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 26d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (71 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 720 -6.3% -15.3% 89% 0% -20.6%
≤30d 1748 -2.6% -11.8% 93% 1% -14.3%
≤90d 1748 -2.6% -11.8% 93% 1% -14.3%
all 1748 -2.6% -11.8% 93% 1% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover71.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 1% -14.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 0% -22.5%
15% -28.0% 0% -30.0%
20% -35.0% 0% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$10 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$3,542
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses1619 / 129
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1748 / 1698
History coverage26d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day71.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1748 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Up 97¢ 48¢ $7 $3 −$3 (-51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 126 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 28 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 28 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 28 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $7 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $7 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $6 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $6 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $8 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $8 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $8 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $8 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.33 · official $3.33 (match) · 3500 history records