Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
35 0x35df…47ae crypto 950 markets active 0h ago coverage 402d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Covers last 402d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$293 (-0%) realized −$293 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate73%694W / 256L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$160per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$209
7 days−$181
14 days−$247
30 days−$239
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$95
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -9.3% -17.9% 71% 31% -12.5%
≤30d 75 -14.9% -23.0% 65% 32% -13.5%
≤90d 352 -7.1% -15.9% 70% 50% -11.7%
all 950 -1.2% -10.6% 73% 51% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 51% -9.6%
10% -19.1% 26% -18.2%
15% -26.9% 10% -26.1%
20% -34.1% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$70 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

402d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$293
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses694 / 256
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)950 / 950
History coverage402d ⚠
Avg bet$160
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 950 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $36 −$23 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $153 −$94 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $91 +$23 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $151 +$12 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $153 −$17 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $143 +$28 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $152 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $121 +$7 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $61 +$10 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $102 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $103 −$88 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $100 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $102 +$26 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $101 −$49 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $51 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$24 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $103 +$14 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $251 −$23 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $157 +$15 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$5 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $152 +$28 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$8 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$11 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $40 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $40 +$2 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $13 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $36 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $51 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $54 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $102 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $114 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $51 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $20 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $20 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $76 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $109 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $51 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records