Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:09:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
35 0x35de…b39a sports 316 markets active 2h ago coverage 416d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$123,912 (+67%) realized +$123,895 · open +$17
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%129W / 184L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$584per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$216now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$302
7 days+$264
14 days+$295
30 days+$355
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$123,911
other 0% +$21
crypto 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +32.9% +20.3% 50% 50% +23.5%
≤30d 15 +22.2% +10.6% 47% 47% +21.1%
≤90d 19 +30.6% +18.2% 47% 47% +25.1%
all 313 -2.5% -11.8% 41% 41% +51.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 41% +51.3%
10% -20.2% 41% +36.8%
15% -27.9% 41% +23.6%
20% -35.0% 40% +11.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 84% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +67% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +3% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,535 vs −$403 · ×3.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.67 per $1 lost it wins $2.67
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

416d coverage
Net worth$216
Realized+$123,895
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses129 / 184
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions3
Markets (closed)313 / 316
History coverage416d
Avg bet$584
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 313 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Tunisia 62¢ 60¢ $99 $97 −$2 (-2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $70 +$20 (+41%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 174 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $100 +$105 +105%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $80 −$79 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $72 +$208 +291%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$68 +67%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $46 −$45 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $92 −$91 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $39 +$104 +268%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $96 +$93 +97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $47 −$46 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $50 −$3 -6%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $119 +$130 +109%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $59 +$60 +101%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $40 −$39 -98%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 16 $51 +$187 +365%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 27 $82 −$81 -98%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 27 $100 +$82 +83%
Spread: Seahawks (-5.5) Feb 11 $490 +$553 +113%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 11 $1,000 +$471 +47%
Rams vs. Seahawks Jan 26 $849 +$640 +75%
Patriots vs. Broncos Jan 25 $300 −$300 -100%
UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $95 −$95 -100%
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $394 −$394 -100%
Texans vs. Patriots Jan 18 $450 −$450 -100%
Spread: Rams (-3.5) Jan 18 $600 −$600 -100%
49ers vs. Seahawks Jan 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Spread: Seahawks (-7.5) Jan 15 $250 −$250 -100%
Bills vs. Broncos Jan 15 $469 −$469 -100%
Texans vs. Steelers Jan 13 $454 +$315 +70%
49ers vs. Eagles Jan 12 $250 +$556 +223%
Bills vs. Jaguars Jan 11 $505 +$542 +107%
Chargers vs. Patriots Jan 11 $250 −$250 -100%
Rams vs. Panthers Jan 11 $200 +$151 +75%
Rams vs. Panthers: O/U 46.5 Jan 11 $200 +$254 +127%
Packers vs. Bears Jan 10 $478 −$478 -100%
Oregon vs. Indiana Jan 09 $182 −$182 -100%
Lions vs. Bears Jan 08 $100 +$163 +163%
Chargers vs. Broncos Jan 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Colts vs. Texans Jan 04 $200 −$200 -100%
Browns vs. Bengals Jan 04 $85 −$85 -100%
Ravens vs. Steelers Jan 04 $550 −$465 -84%
Packers vs. Vikings Jan 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Seahawks vs. 49ers Jan 04 $463 −$463 -100%
Panthers vs. Buccaneers Jan 04 $400 +$277 +69%
Ole Miss vs. Georgia Jan 02 $514 −$514 -100%
Alabama vs. Indiana Jan 01 $150 −$150 -100%
Oregon vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Jan 01 $250 −$250 -100%
Spread: Rams (-7.5) Dec 30 $224 −$224 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 62¢ $100 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 48¢ $100 4h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $80 4h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $72 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $169 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 28h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $46 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 55¢ $92 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 27¢ $39 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 7d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 50¢ $96 7d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 8d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 8d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 28¢ $47 8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 38¢ $47 8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 39¢ $50 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $119 12d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Knicks 49¢ $59 15d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Cavaliers 33¢ $40 31d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 21¢ $51 41d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Lakers 41¢ $82 54d
Knicks vs. Hawks BUY Knicks 54¢ $100 56d
Spread: Seahawks (-5.5) BUY Seahawks 47¢ $490 145d
Seahawks vs. Patriots BUY Seahawks 68¢ $1,000 145d
Rams vs. Seahawks BUY Seahawks 57¢ $849 146d
Patriots vs. Broncos BUY Broncos 35¢ $300 146d
UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) BUY Yadong 35¢ $95 146d
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY Pimblett 69¢ $394 146d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $215.92 · official $215.92 (match) · 587 history records