Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:50:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x35dd…8663 crypto 402 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$28 (+0%) realized +$45 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%399W / 2L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day41.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$38
14 days+$59
30 days+$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$42
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 266 +0.7% -8.9% 99% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 401 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 401 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.9%
all 401 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 0% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.3% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.3% 0% -25.5%
20% -32.7% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$27 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.07 per $1 lost it wins $2.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$45
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses399 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)401 / 402
History coverage10d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day41.8
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 401 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Down 97¢ 50¢ $34 $17 −$17 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 22 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 22 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 21 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 21 $35 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 21 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 21 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 21 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 21 $35 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 21 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 21 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 21 $35 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 20 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 20 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 20 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 20 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 20 $35 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 20 $34 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 20 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 20 $34 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 20 $34 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $35 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 20 $35 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $34 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $34 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 20 $35 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 20 $35 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 20 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 20 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 20 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 20 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 19 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 19 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $35 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 19 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 19 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 19 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 19 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 19 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $34 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 19 $34 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 19 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 19 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 19 $35 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $34 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $35 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $35 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $35 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $35 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $35 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $35 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $35 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $35 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $35 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $35 21h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $0 25h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $35 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $35 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $35 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $35 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $35 32h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $34 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $35 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $34 33h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $34 33h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $35 33h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $35 33h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $34 33h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $34 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $35 41h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $35 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $35 42h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.50 · official $17.50 (match) · 817 history records