Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:29:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
35 0x35dc…b9ef other 16 markets active 4h ago coverage 64d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$5,967 (+8%) realized +$4,459 · open +$1,508
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$4,941per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$83est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$54,496now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$929
7 days+$2,674
14 days+$4,206
30 days+$4,206
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 58% +$1,209
other 29% −$577
sports 13% +$5,083
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +65.0% +49.3% 50% 50% +7.0%
≤30d 6 +31.1% +18.6% 50% 50% +5.6%
≤90d 7 +25.3% +13.4% 43% 43% +5.6%
all 7 +25.3% +13.4% 43% 43% +5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.4% 43% +5.6%
10% ← realistic here +2.5% 43% -4.5%
15% -7.4% 29% -13.7%
20% -16.5% 29% -22.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2,398 vs −$747 · ×3.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.41 per $1 lost it wins $2.41
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$54,496
Realized+$4,459
Unrealized+$1,508
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$83
Open positions9
Markets (closed)7 / 16
History coverage64d
Avg bet$4,941
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $23,100 $24,862 +$1,762 (+8%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $13,041 $13,087 +$46 (+0%)
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $6,000 $5,897 −$102 (-2%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $3,796 $3,779 −$16 (-0%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 46¢ 48¢ $2,500 $2,664 +$164 (+7%)
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? Yes 66¢ 52¢ $2,052 $1,627 −$425 (-21%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 47¢ $1,000 $1,122 +$122 (+12%)
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,000 $929 −$71 (-7%)
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 27¢ $500 $530 +$30 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4,042 +$2,112 +52%
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $4,562 −$1,183 -26%
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5,054 −$805 -16%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,022 +$2,550 +250%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,022 −$1,000 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $9,516 +$2,533 +27%
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? May 01 $1 $0 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 15¢ $1,034 3h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1,040 4h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 15¢ $207 4h
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $303 4h
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $1,682 23h
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 41¢ $1,682 23h
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $1,853 23h
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 41¢ $1,698 23h
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $2,535 4d
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 55¢ $2,374 4d
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $2,028 4d
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 55¢ $797 4d
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 56¢ $1,077 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $2,541 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $4,042 5d
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $5,054 6d
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $511 6d
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 42¢ $1,017 6d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1,022 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1,022 7d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 78¢ $9,516 13d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 16¢ $6,141 15d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 14¢ $931 22d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 16¢ $2,067 42d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 15¢ $1,049 45d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 13¢ $2,054 45d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 21¢ $5,157 45d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 21¢ $2,063 50d
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 50d
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $2,027 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54,496.15 · official $54,496.15 (match) · 108 history records