Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:06:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

35
0x35da…f820
other · 126 markets active 2h ago
2.0score
−$47 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$50 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$40
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses11 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)125 / 126
History coverage124d
Avg bet$280
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%
Chart Positions 1 History 125 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Cavaliers vs. Bucks Cavaliers 61¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Nets vs. Pistons Pistons 90¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Clippers vs. Grizzlies Grizzlies 31¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Nets vs. Heat Nets 15¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Celtics vs. Thunder Celtics 28¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Kings vs. Rockets Kings 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Magic vs. Suns Magic 44¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Magic vs. Timberwolves Timberwolves 70¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $290 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $309 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $44 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $38 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $234 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $43 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 30 $24 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $28 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 28 $221 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 27 $256 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $1,070 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $272 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $211 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $278 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $249 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $214 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $537 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $256 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $576 −$1 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $229 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $207 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $250 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $232 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $237 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $702 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $488 −$1 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $224 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $204 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 20 $291 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $770 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $238 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 17 $491 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $288 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $501 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $295 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $798 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $276 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $253 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $209 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 14 $203 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $221 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $269 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 13 $475 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $274 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $1,049 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $300 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 08 $296 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 08 $226 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 41% −$16
politics 30% −$13
sports 15% −$16
crypto 5% −$2
tech 4% −$1
world 3% −$1
economics 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 1h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $36 1h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $36 8d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $44 11d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $44 11d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $44 12d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $44 13d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $38 13d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $38 13d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $30 13d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $30 13d
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 98¢ $43 13d
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 98¢ $43 13d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $24 14d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $24 15d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 15d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 15d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $24 15d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $24 15d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $221 16d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $221 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $256 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $256 18d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $244 19d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $244 19d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $272 20d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $272 21d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $211 21d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $211 22d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $278 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 23 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 89 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 125 -1.6% -11.0% 9% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 6% -9.7%
10% -19.5% 6% -18.3%
15% -27.3% 5% -26.2%
20% -34.4% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.98 · official $39.98 (match) · 357 history records