Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:35:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

35
0x35d9…ee18
weather · 1520 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$324 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$124 · open −$24
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$183
Realized−$124
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses1426 / 86
Open positions8
Markets (closed)1512 / 1520
History coverage61d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day31.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 8 History 1512 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$33
14 days−$20
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 50¢ 77¢ $50 $77 +$27 (+54%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 23¢ $50 $23 −$27 (-54%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? Yes 92¢ 100¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 14? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Yes 95¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 13? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $15 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 13? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 13? Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 13? Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 13 $3 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 12? Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 12? Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 79% −$137
weather 21% +$16
politics 0% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 42m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 99¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 99¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 13h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? BUY Yes 87¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 13? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 16h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 16h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 16h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 18h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 18h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 18h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 21h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 22h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 218 -1.5% -10.9% 95% 3% -10.9%
≤30d 671 +0.5% -9.0% 98% 1% -9.3%
≤90d 1512 +0.2% -9.3% 94% 15% -9.8%
all 1512 +0.2% -9.3% 94% 15% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover31.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 15% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 3% -18.4%
15% -25.9% 1% -26.3%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $182.96 · official $182.96 (match) · 3500 history records