Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:43:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x35d7…0917 crypto 132 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (356 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$65 (-3%) realized −$61 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate70%81W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day355.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$121
sports 6% −$10
other 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (356 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 116 -7.8% -16.6% 70% 58% -15.9%
≤30d 116 -7.8% -16.6% 70% 58% -15.9%
≤90d 116 -7.8% -16.6% 70% 58% -15.9%
all 116 -7.8% -16.6% 70% 58% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover355.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.6% 58% -15.9%
10% ← realistic here -24.6% 47% -23.9%
15% -31.9% 9% -31.3%
20% -38.5% 3% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$10 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$148
Realized−$61
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses81 / 35
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions16
Markets (closed)116 / 132
History coverage2d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day355.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 58¢ 57¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 98¢ 98¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 96¢ 96¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 91¢ 91¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-0%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 70¢ 90¢ $9 $11 +$3 (+29%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 96¢ 95¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 39¢ 53¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+38%)
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Ecuador 80¢ 82¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 59¢ 59¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Germany? No 96¢ 96¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
UFC Fight Night: Julius Walker vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavyweight, Prelims) Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev 80¢ 82¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, Prelims) Daniil Donchenko 79¢ 80¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko Caty McNally 50¢ 36¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-27%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Over 72¢ 71¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Over 43¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports - Map 2 Winner Beşiktaş Esports 69¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 25 $13 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 25 $55 +$16 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $164 −$17 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 25 $40 −$38 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 25 $27 −$24 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 25 $12 −$1 -12%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Moez Echargui Jun 25 $27 +$3 +10%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Quentin Halys Jun 25 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 25 $17 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 25 $32 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 25 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 25 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 25 $32 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 25 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 25 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 25 $16 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 25 $16 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 25 $16 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 25 $8 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 25 $16 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 25 $16 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 25 $16 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 25 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 25 $32 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 25 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 25 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 25 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 58¢ $29 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $15 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $13 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $3 12m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $147.62 · official $147.62 (match) · 615 history records