Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:37:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
35 0x35d6…9d27 other 121 markets active 2d ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$967 (+2%) realized +$967 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate72%85W / 33L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$454per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$107
7 days−$77
14 days−$77
30 days+$331
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% +$1,365
crypto 29% +$102
sports 15% −$323
economics 11% +$142
tech 7% −$20
politics 6% −$177
finance 0% −$95
world 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -3.4% -12.6% 53% 53% -20.3%
≤30d 17 -0.2% -9.7% 59% 59% +7.1%
≤90d 18 -0.2% -9.7% 61% 56% +7.0%
all 118 -7.6% -16.4% 72% 28% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 28% -7.9%
10% -24.4% 17% -16.7%
15% -31.7% 14% -24.8%
20% -38.4% 6% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$59 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized+$967
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses85 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)118 / 121
History coverage232d
Avg bet$454
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$7 +36%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $121 +$48 +40%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$6 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$14 +48%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$31 +307%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 15 $50 +$21 +42%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $101 +$60 +60%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $81 −$80 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Harry Kane be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Bundesliga seaso May 20 $26 +$3 +11%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $1,120 +$405 +36%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Apr 10 $20 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 26? Feb 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 26 $10 +$1 +6%
Hyperliquid Up or Down on February 23? Feb 25 $5 $0 +3%
Will Georgia vs. Spain end in a draw? Feb 23 $150 −$150 -100%
Meta (META) Up or Down on December 24? Feb 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Dow Jones (DJI) Up or Down on December 24? Feb 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Portugal vs. Armenia end in a draw? Feb 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-11-25? Feb 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Levante UD win on 2025-10-26? Feb 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 2, 8AM ET Feb 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Kazakhstan win on 2025-11-15? Feb 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 2, 8AM ET Feb 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-11-05? Feb 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-05? Feb 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Feb 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on November 5? Feb 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on November 3? Feb 23 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-01? Feb 23 $3,000 +$287 +10%
Will Albania vs. England end in a draw? Feb 23 $260 −$260 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-22? Feb 23 $100 +$52 +52%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 21 $600 −$270 -45%
Will Arsenal vs. Tottenham end in a draw? Jan 14 $180 −$180 -100%
Will Gold close under $2,500 at the end of 2025? Jan 03 $110 $0 -0%
Will Phantom launch a token in 2025? Jan 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Rabby launch a token in 2025? Jan 03 $10 $0 +0%
Cardano ETF in 2025? Jan 03 $28 +$1 +2%
Pepe ETF in 2025? Jan 03 $66 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Jan 03 $1,300 +$34 +3%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 31 $20 +$2 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 29? Dec 31 $1,700 +$7 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down on December 27? Dec 28 $10 +$1 +10%
XRP Up or Down on December 27? Dec 28 $10 +$2 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $81 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $20 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $121 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $25 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $81 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 6d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 59¢ $127 65d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 26? BUY Up 83¢ $100 111d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 114d
Hyperliquid Up or Down on February 23? BUY Down 97¢ $5 114d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $100 115d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 56¢ $120 115d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $5 116d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru BUY Yes 99¢ $20 116d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 58¢ $140 116d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 18¢ $330 116d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 62¢ $574 165d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,700 170d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.74 · official $104.74 (match) · 283 history records