trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -37.2% | -43.2% | 50% | 0% | -62.8% |
| ≤30d | 3 | -21.6% | -29.1% | 67% | 0% | -30.9% |
| ≤90d | 6 | -7.5% | -16.3% | 67% | 33% | -28.6% |
| all | 11 | -13.1% | -21.4% | 55% | 36% | -4.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -21.4% | 36% | -4.4% |
| 10% | -28.9% | 36% | -13.5% |
| 15% | -35.8% | 27% | -21.9% |
| 20% | -42.1% | 27% | -29.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 13¢ | 10¢ | $100 | $79 | −$21 (-21%) |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 38¢ | 38¢ | $50 | $50 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 21¢ | 21¢ | $50 | $50 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? | Yes | 24¢ | 44¢ | $10 | $19 | +$9 (+85%) |
| Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? | Yes | 25¢ | 21¢ | $15 | $13 | −$2 (-16%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 | Jun 27 | $300 | −$237 | -79% |
| Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup | Jun 27 | $95 | +$4 | +5% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? | Jun 12 | $422 | +$40 | +10% |
| Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? | Apr 24 | $100 | +$27 | +27% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET | Apr 21 | $10 | +$9 | +93% |
| Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Apr 21 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31? | Sep 28 | $66 | +$63 | +95% |
| Will Israel invade Lebanon before September? | Sep 01 | $487 | +$278 | +57% |
| Will Trump announce strategic Bitcoin reserve? | Jul 29 | $29 | −$17 | -59% |
| Will Joe Biden make an appearance today? | Jul 25 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Biden seen in public today? | Jul 23 | $25 | −$23 | -93% |