Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T01:30:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
35 0x35d4…f15b other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,157 (-7%) realized −$446 · open −$711
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$802per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$6,226now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$537
7 days+$537
14 days−$562
30 days−$562
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 68% −$252
other 30% −$868
sports 1% −$177
world 1% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-36.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +11.9% +1.3% 100% 100% +1.3%
≤30d 8 -30.2% -36.9% 50% 38% -13.2%
≤90d 8 -30.2% -36.9% 50% 38% -13.2%
all 8 -30.2% -36.9% 50% 38% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.9% 38% -13.2%
10% -42.9% 12% -21.5%
15% -48.4% 0% -29.1%
20% -53.5% 0% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$208 vs −$349 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$6,226
Realized−$446
Unrealized−$711
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions12
Markets (closed)8 / 20
History coverage56d
Avg bet$802
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election? Yes 76¢ 74¢ $2,479 $2,434 −$45 (-2%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 47¢ 44¢ $1,973 $1,815 −$158 (-8%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 32¢ 22¢ $1,856 $1,271 −$585 (-32%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ $100 $179 +$79 (+79%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 80¢ $100 $122 +$22 (+22%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $100 $116 +$16 (+16%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $100 $82 −$18 (-18%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $100 $76 −$24 (-24%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $15 +$5 (+55%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $6 −$4 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 24 $4,503 +$537 +12%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,000 −$995 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3,001 +$253 +8%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $100 −$196 -196%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $100 −$198 -198%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $100 +$21 +21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $100 +$23 +23%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $103 −$7 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber BUY Yes 71¢ $1,496 1h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY No 44¢ $995 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 99¢ $11 4d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 90¢ $100 7d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 89¢ $4,018 10d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 84¢ $1,000 10d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $1,000 11d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $2,001 11d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $100 11d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $100 11d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 82¢ $100 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $123 11d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 11d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 11d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 11d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $96 12d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY No 51¢ $1,020 12d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 12d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 12d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 12d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 12d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 12d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 12d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 27¢ $1,029 12d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $100 12d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 88¢ $374 13d
Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber BUY Yes 86¢ $503 14d
Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber BUY Yes 83¢ $503 14d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 43¢ $81 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,226.23 · official $6,226.35 (match) · 66 history records