Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:41:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x35d3…7a1e crypto 593 markets active 11h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate55%326W / 267L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$8
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -0.8% -10.2% 64% 50% -16.5%
≤30d 180 -7.4% -16.2% 61% 54% -12.6%
≤90d 593 -2.0% -11.3% 55% 53% -13.1%
all 593 -2.0% -11.3% 55% 53% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 53% -13.1%
10% -19.8% 51% -21.4%
15% -27.6% 45% -29.0%
20% -34.7% 40% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses326 / 267
Open positions0
Markets (closed)593 / 593
History coverage69d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 593 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$3 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$3 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $8 −$3 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 10 $8 −$3 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $8 −$4 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 08 $4 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 08 $8 −$3 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 07 $4 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 07 $8 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 04 $3 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 03 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 03 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 03 $3 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 03 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 03 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 03 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 03 $3 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 02 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 02 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 02 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 02 $6 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 02 $3 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 02 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 02 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 02 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 02 $2 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1239 history records