Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:53:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x35d1…c8bc crypto 363 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$328 (-3%) realized −$329 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%153W / 197L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$151
7 days−$183
14 days−$309
30 days−$1,295
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$953
other 0% −$17
sports 0% +$10
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -6.1% -15.0% 35% 35% -32.4%
≤30d 267 -13.6% -21.8% 42% 40% -26.8%
≤90d 350 -8.2% -16.9% 44% 42% -18.2%
all 350 -8.2% -16.9% 44% 42% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 42% -18.2%
10% -24.9% 38% -26.0%
15% -32.1% 35% -33.1%
20% -38.8% 30% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$23 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$329
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses153 / 197
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)350 / 363
History coverage51d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 350 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Yes 5¢ 8¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+50%)
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+29%)
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 187 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 +$2 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 24 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 24 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 24 $35 −$34 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 24 $31 +$14 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 24 $20 +$9 +44%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1 +$1 +122%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 +$7 +712%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$11 +55%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $1 +$4 +428%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 +$4 +344%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$3 +250%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$9 +874%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 20 $21 +$11 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 20 $20 +$9 +42%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 +$3 +291%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $20 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 20¢ $1 5h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 6h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 6h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 6h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 6h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 6h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 6h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 6h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 6h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 6h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 6h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $20 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $33 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $21 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $29 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $20 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.58 · official $9.58 · 657 history records